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A month after the United States attacked Venezuela to capture its president, civilians in the South American country remain torn between fear and hope for regime change.
Some believe the ouster of strongman leader Nicolas Maduro offers a glimmer of hope for rebuilding institutions and guaranteeing people’s rights. Some have questioned whether this new phase, which the United States and the government of acting President Delcy Rodriguez are calling a “transition,” will lead to democracy, or whether the changes they hope for will remain on hold.
A woman who watched the explosion from a distance with her boyfriend said the days since the attack on Maduro’s mansion have felt slow and difficult. The woman, a bioanalyst from eastern Caracas who requested anonymity for safety reasons, said she was still recovering from the ordeal. She doesn’t go out at night and suffers from anxiety, especially when she hears fireworks or loud noises. He said he was paying close attention to the situation in the country and waiting to see if fundamental changes were possible. “It’s real,” she said.
Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello said at least 100 people were killed and another 100 injured in the U.S. operation that led to the arrest of Maduro and parliamentarian Syria Flores.
After the Supreme Court declared Maduro’s detention in forced absence, then-Vice President Delcy Rodriguez took over the role of acting president. This is an unprecedented situation that is not defined in Venezuela’s constitution. Since then, Rodríguez has argued that the country is experiencing a new political moment, and has already made some changes within his cabinet and the Bolivarian Armed Forces. Mr. Rodriguez has made at least 28 major reforms within the military, according to experts interviewed by CNN.
But a month after Maduro’s arrest, the country remains on an uncertain path, although some see reason for optimism over the economy and the release of political prisoners.
In Caracas, the mood swings between skepticism, optimism, and bewilderment. Economist Asdrubal Oliveros said meat and poultry prices have fallen, real estate prices have risen 22% and airlines, including American Airlines, are starting to return to Venezuela. However, Venezuela remains on the list of countries with partial visa restrictions, and deportation of Venezuelans remains a focus of the Trump administration.
The U.S. Embassy in Caracas has resumed operations with Laura Dogou as Chargé d’Affaires, and Venezuela has appointed diplomat Félix Plasencia as its representative in Washington. Dogu said on social media that his meeting with Delcy Rodriguez and his brother, Congressional President Jorge Rodriguez, was aimed at reiterating the three priorities outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio: stabilization, economic recovery, and reconciliation and transition. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Iván Gil said the move marks the beginning of a new era in which Venezuela is committed to complying with international law.
Some politicians, including opposition figures Andres Velázquez and Delsa Solorzano, have emerged in response to Venezuela’s departure from Maduro’s rule, but say they remain cautious, as do other citizens critical of those in power.
Administrator Carlos Nuñez remains hopeful and believes the release of political prisoners could set a precedent in the country. He believes that many legal, economic and social issues still need to be addressed, but this release represents a major step towards change.
Graphic designer Jessica Diaz, on the other hand, thinks things are going well and doesn’t see a need for change. “I hope the president and his wife come back,” she said.
Another citizen, who requested anonymity for his own safety, said he remained cautious because despite talk of change, fear persists. “Even law-abiding citizens can be stopped on the street at any time for search and questioning,” he said.
Benigno Alarcón, a Venezuelan political expert who has researched and taught about political transitions around the world, said a month after Maduro left office that “the transition has not really begun.” He said even Rubio’s Congressional testimony last week, in which the secretary of state said the United States stands ready to help oversee Venezuela’s transition from a criminal state to a responsible partner, suggests it is in the preliminary stages.
Speaking at a forum on Venezuela’s transition held in Caracas on January 29, Alarcón described the current situation as an unprecedented, forced and uncertain process. He said a true transition requires the integration of three elements that are currently missing. Institutional changes in rules. and decentralize the management of security forces. He concluded that Venezuela cannot yet be called in transition, adding that those who want democracy expect progress in that direction.
Alarcón said those in power are not keen on holding elections in the near future and intend to delay them as long as possible because they know it will not benefit them. He also believes Delcy Rodriguez, in her role as acting president, is seeking to retain power by extending constitutional deadlines indefinitely, with the support of the judiciary under an unprecedented system of forced absences.
“It depends on the polls. If they think there is a chance of victory, they will call an election. If not, they will postpone it,” he argues. “They are going to buy time and stay in power,” Alarcón said, adding that external pressure from the United States was key but insufficient. “Washington can provide incentives, but legitimacy will only come through the votes of the Venezuelan people. Society must demand democracy,” he said.
As for opposition leader María Colina Machado, he said her presence abroad would facilitate dialogue with the government. However, he believes she should return to Venezuela soon.
Alarcón welcomed the reopening of the US embassy, not for visas, but for “intelligence and economic control of conflict-affected countries” and the military’s symbolic pledge of subordination to Delcy Rodriguez as acting president.
But experts hope the promise will be kept. The government claimed to have released more than 800 political prisoners, but said authorities needed to identify the released detainees and that there should be no restrictions on their release at the request of university students.
Alarcón said people are becoming impatient with the slow pace, but the process is proceeding in an orderly manner, raising questions about whether this coercive model will work or whether delays will become widespread.
Juan Carlos Apiz, dean of the Faculty of Law and Political Science at the Central University of Venezuela, believes that this is not a complete transition or a continuation of the current government, but a “moment for the people” in which democracy must be established by respecting the constitution and the results of the July 28, 2024 elections. The opposition claims its candidate Emundo González won and has the tally sheets to prove it. The National Electoral Council claims Maduro won, but has refused to release the tally.
In Apitz’s view, “the first step towards democracy in Venezuela is the complete and unconditional release of all political prisoners.” In this regard, he believes that mere prison visits are unacceptable while families continue to wait. He argues that the apparatus of repression has not been dismantled and that there has been no real change yet.
He also questioned what to make of the military paradox of January 28, when the military confirmed Delcy Rodriguez as commander-in-chief, an irreconcilable position for Mr. Maduro to take on the role. “There can’t be two commanders,” he said.
Apitz also pointed out that when discussing January 3, only the victims are mentioned, but no one is held accountable. “Where are the public authorities who authorized the violation of territorial integrity and the removal of Mr. Maduro?”
