In many ways, it was already a truce that never existed. But with the US and Iran claiming to have each hit dozens of targets with airstrikes, drones and missile attacks in the past 48 hours, it is becoming increasingly difficult to see where things will go next.
The new attack is the latest in a series of back-and-forth attacks since the two countries first agreed to a fragile ceasefire in April and signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in June that is said to set the stage for a permanent end to the fighting.
Iran claims the United States is not fulfilling its obligations on its side of the deal. The US government claims that the Iranian government is reneging on its commitments.
But U.S. President Donald Trump is losing patience — particularly this week, frustrated by attacks by Iran as he met with world leaders at the NATO summit in Turkey. On Wednesday, he declared the memorandum of understanding with Iran “done” and called Iranian leaders “cuckoos” and “a waste of time.”
The Iranian government issued its own warning, with the speaker of parliament and top negotiator posting to X: “If you attack, you will be attacked.”
What we have now is that the U.S. military is attacking multiple targets inside Iran, primarily on the coast. But Iranian forces are still able to fight back, firing missiles and drones at U.S. military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The situation also remains volatile in the Strait of Hormuz, and experts say the latest attack will not remove Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in one of the world’s most important energy arteries.
Recent attacks by both sides have been less intense than those carried out at the start of the war in late February, leading some to suggest the peace process still has a chance.
But others see little reason for optimism.
Karl Schuster, former director of the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Information Center, said, “The Iranian government, which signed the ceasefire, had no authority over the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), so there was little chance that the ceasefire would survive.”
The Revolutionary Guards are Iran’s elite military force, completely separate from the regular army. They control the country’s missile arsenal and their job is to protect the country’s Islamic revolution. They report only to the supreme leader and have shown little interest in striking a deal with Washington, at least on terms that would satisfy President Trump.
“Their biggest goal is to keep the theocracy in power,” said CNN military analyst Cedric Layton, a retired U.S. Air Force colonel. “This air campaign is not going to force them to change any of that. It’s too limited in scope.”
And the Revolutionary Guards want to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes during peacetime, something they have done since the early days of the war and which has driven up global oil prices.
President Trump wants to keep the strait open and free, but analysts say Iran maintains strong authority through its Revolutionary Guards.
“The only viable ceasefire is one that the Revolutionary Guards agree to, and that will only happen if the Revolutionary Guards leadership believes that a ceasefire is the only option that guarantees the survival of the organization as an independent organization,” Schuster said.
According to U.S. officials, recent hostilities followed a now-familiar pattern. The trigger was Iran’s shelling of three commercial ships in Omani territorial waters near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
Iran views control of the waterway as its most important leverage in negotiations, saying ships must use designated routes and obtain Iranian permission to cross. But more ships are instead using the route closer to Oman’s coast, threatening Iran’s influence on the waterway.
In Iran’s eyes, this violates the memorandum of understanding, which includes provisions such as reopening the strait, easing financial pressure on Iran and setting expectations for addressing Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran has also continued to fire on ships, prompting U.S. retaliation each time, making the latest fighting the worst since the memorandum was signed.
After Tuesday’s ship attack, the US launched a new offensive, hitting 80 targets across Iran. At the same time, the United States reimposed sanctions on Iranian oil after initially agreeing to 60 days of sanctions relief as part of the ceasefire agreement.
The Revolutionary Guards said Wednesday morning that Iran responded with attacks on 85 U.S. military targets in neighboring Bahrain and Kuwait. The attack coincided with a multi-day funeral for former Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in the joint U.S.-Israeli operation that started the war.
Another wave of U.S. attacks began late Wednesday and early Thursday, with explosions heard across Iran. The United States announced Thursday that 90 more targets had been attacked. Meanwhile, both Bahrain and Kuwait have sounded sirens warning of the looming threat, suggesting Iran’s promised retaliation may have begun.
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So far, most of the attacks by the US have been carried out on Iran’s southern coast along the Strait of Hormuz, with the aim of undermining Iran’s ability to control the vital waterway. Several targets in the interior, including north of Tehran, were also attacked.
According to U.S. Central Command, the targets include air defense systems, radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities and dozens of small vessels that will “degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international commerce flowing through international trade corridors.”
These attacks could have some impact on Iran’s capabilities near the Straits, but only up to a point, experts warn, comparing recent attacks to attacks earlier in the war.
“If large-scale deployments could not deter Iran’s Strait of Hormuz threat, neither will this smaller force option,” said Peter Leighton, a researcher at the Griffith Asia Institute and a former Royal Australian Air Force officer.
“This only shows Iranian physical discomfort with the negotiators. The attack was effective, destroying 60 small boats, for example, but it is very unlikely to influence Iranian thinking,” he said.
Retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis, who has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz many times, agreed. “You can significantly reduce the capabilities of a drone, but you can’t take away its capabilities in this new drone era,” he says.
Alex Prisas, head of the Atlantic Council’s counterterrorism program, said reimposing sanctions could have a bigger impact than airstrikes given Iran’s economic woes.
The future of the conflict remains uncertain for both sides.
In the past few months, President Trump has made repeated threats against Tehran, including restarting a full-scale war, but has since backtracked and is now visibly frustrated. “Every time they hit us, we’re going to hit them 20 times,” President Trump said Wednesday.
He is under intense pressure to end a war that has devastated the global economy and caused the biggest oil supply shock in world history.
Trump’s military actions also have domestic implications, and he has come under harsh criticism from fellow Republicans and MAGA supporters, exacerbating sentiment.
This was made clear last month when the Senate adopted a resolution aimed at removing U.S. troops from hostilities, a clear rebuke of President Trump, but was withdrawn just a day later after some Republicans changed their votes after speaking with Trump and his allies.
The shadow of war will loom over the midterm elections scheduled for November, something Republicans have privately worried about for months as voter dissatisfaction with the war grows.
Iran is also in trouble.
The large crowds attending Khamenei’s funeral procession this week, calling for revenge against the United States and Israel, are a clear sign of how firmly the Islamic Republic’s regime remains despite taking blows from the world’s most powerful military. Many Iranian hardliners disliked the memorandum to begin with.
But Tehran’s leaders also know that their economy is struggling and that they cannot outpace the United States. What they can do is use the Strait of Hormuz, a key leverage point, to increase pressure.
The question now is whether these tensions can be eased or whether they will explode into a return to all-out war.
