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This summer, mega-artist Harry Styles will take the stage at New York City’s Madison Square Garden for an exclusive 30-show residency. This is the only performance he has scheduled in the country, and it is a show that has attracted strong attention since its announcement.
Despite her best efforts, Sheila Elfasy is not there.
“His ticket was ridiculous,” Elfathy, 29, told CNBC. “It felt like an insult to go in and see that not only could you not get in, not only were there no tickets left, but still, the most basic price for a nosebleed seat was $500. And this is becoming commonplace.”
Instead, Elfasy said she got tickets to see other artists such as Florence and the Machine and Olivia Rodrigo for much cheaper prices. She said it was now common for some concerts to feel “overpriced.”
“It’s a strange dynamic right now. … If I had to make a decision at this point between making more summer plans or going out with friends or paying my rent or going to this concert, it would be a no-brainer,” she said. “But that wasn’t the case before.”
Elfassy represents a growing group of consumers reluctant to keep up with rising prices for live music, creating a K-shaped demand curve in which higher-income consumers increase spending and keep prices inflated, while lower-income consumers retreat.
This dynamic is playing out across discretionary spending categories such as retail, dining, and travel as Americans grapple with persistent inflation, economic uncertainty, and now high gas prices.
There is growing concern in the live music industry that this K-shaped environment will lead to the complete decline of the lower end of the market.
Some people refer to this change in demand as “blue dot fever.” The name comes from the blue dots on Ticketmaster’s seating chart that indicate unsold tickets. For some artists, it has forced them to take a critical look at their performances. Post Malone, Zayn and the Pussycat Dolls are just a few of the artists who have canceled shows and tours in recent months, with the last group openly admitting that poor ticket sales were to blame.
Last summer, even before the latest price pressures, industry research suggested that high ticket prices were helping maintain overall market health. goldman sachs Demand for live music is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.2% from 2024 to 2030, analysts wrote in a 2025 report.
According to the report, the average ticket price for a concert on the World’s Top 100 Tour will be $136 in 2024, up 50% from an average of $91 in 2019.
How inflation changes concert spending
Several major ticket sales companies told CNBC that they have not seen an increase in cancellations of performances this summer compared to previous years.
“In all the programs, live nation A spokesperson for Ticketmaster’s parent company said: “Of the bookings we have this year, less than 1% have been cancelled. This is not ‘Blue Dot Fever’. This is a normal touring year. Less than 1% have been cancelled.” In fact, 2026 is on track to set a record with an 11% increase in annual concert ticket sales. ”
The spokesperson added that approximately 70% of tickets sold on the company’s platform are priced under $100.
Live Nation and Ticketmaster have faced intense scrutiny over their ticket sales practices and dominant influence in the music industry. The company faced legal challenges for alleged anticompetitive conduct, but reached a settlement with the Justice Department in March. A federal jury found Live Nation to have an anticompetitive monopoly last month, but the company said in a statement at the time that “the jury’s verdict is not the final word on this matter.”
Live Nation website placed on a laptop on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 in New York, USA.
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stub hubThe ticket reseller told CNBC that it sees a K-shaped pattern taking shape for live music, with demand rapidly dispersing across different events.
StubHub says overall concert demand is up nearly 10% year-over-year, but not across the board. Ticket demand for stadium-sized events has increased significantly, while demand for smaller and medium-sized venues has decreased.
Jill Gonzalez, head of consumer communications at StubHub, said events that are struggling with sales are facing a “supply scale issue.” The events that draw the most attention from fans are stadium tours, residencies and marquee festivals, she said.
“What our data makes clear is that fan demand for live music is not easing, but rather increasing,” Gonzalez told CNBC. “Fans are making intentional choices about where they spend their money, and when they decide a show is worth it, that demand signal is as strong as anything we’ve ever seen on our platform.”
Ticketing platform SeatGeek said that while more artists are announcing tours, the resale environment remains healthy.
“As more artists flood the market with tours, total cancellations will increase year over year. That’s to be expected,” said Oliver Marvin, the company’s senior director of strategic finance. “But the overall numbers, the percentage of cancellations as a percentage of people going on tour, is not that different from what we’ve seen in the past.”
He added that some consumers are jumping into last-minute tickets in hopes of lowering prices for tours that don’t have as much immediate demand.
Why stadium tours remain in great demand
Experts say the drop in demand for some shows may be more subtle than meets the eye.
As prices rise everywhere and consumers become more conscious about how they spend their money, the macroeconomic environment, rather than the artists themselves, may be more to blame for unsold tickets, said Sam Howard-Spink, director of music business at New York University.
“It really has a lot to do with the economics of live performance and touring at this point, and it’s very tied to the economic situation and cost of living issues at this point,” Howard-Spink said.
As spending tightens among fans, tour failures could lead to disaster, he suggested, as could if an artist planned a date at an inappropriately sized venue or off-base market. Nostalgia for older artists sometimes draws crowds, but it struggles to outweigh all other factors.
And while big artists can still fill stadiums, less popular artists can’t.
“Harry Styles, Bad Bunny, Lady Gaga, Ariana Grande — these are acts that say, ‘I’m not going to try too hard,'” he said. “But if you’re talking about bands from the…early 2000s, they might simply not be able to draw an audience, but they might be overconfident in the kinds of venues they think they can fill.”
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Howard Spink added that the music business has long been considered largely “recession-proof” and has weathered the pandemic well. However, in contrast to music streaming, concert tickets are a scarce resource, causing prices to rise rapidly.
Music publicist Eric Alper said artists couldn’t have foreseen these macroeconomic factors that are at play now when they booked tours months in advance. He also said more artists are touring than usual this year, making their schedules packed.
He added that the live music scene is seeing an increase in residencies, along with unique new venues like The Sphere in Las Vegas, which is driving up prices across the board, and fans are looking for more experiences for their money.
“People want choreography, they want lighting, they want great sound, they want great visibility,” Alper said. “They’re not going to just sit there and pay $150 to see a band play bare-bones.”
Still, Alper said he believes die-hard fans will be willing to pay.
“If you’re a fan of an artist, I don’t think you’re as concerned about ticket prices as people think,” Alper said. “People want that experience, and they also want to tell people they were there.”
