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BitcoinThe more than 30% drop from its all-time high highlights the volatility that has characterized cryptocurrencies.
According to figures compiled by CoinDesk Data for CNBC, the move from previous cycles not only shows that the current price movements are all part of Bitcoin’s normal operating pattern, but also that price movements often precede upswings.
Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, fell to a low of about $80,000 late last month before rallying and falling again this week. When Bitcoin fell below $81,000, it represented a drop of about 36% from its all-time high of about $126,000, set in early October. As of Thursday, Bitcoin was trading at more than $93,000, down about 26% from its all-time high, according to Coinmetrics.
These price fluctuations may seem large, but they are normal considering Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin price fluctuations are often referred to as “cycles.” In general, a Bitcoin cycle refers to a four-year price movement pattern that revolves around a significant event known as a halving, which is a change in mining rewards written in Bitcoin’s code. Although there are signs that the typical timing and pattern of the cycle may be changing, the range of price movements appears to be consistent.
In the current cycle, Bitcoin has already overcome a 32.7% decline from March to August 2024 and a 31.7% decline from January to April 2025, according to CoinDesk Data.
“If you look at past cycles, this magnitude of volatility seems to be consistent with long-term trends,” Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at CoinDesk Data, told CNBC.
The ups and downs of Bitcoin can be seen throughout its history.
During the 2017 cycle, there were two drawdowns of around 40% in the same year, a 29% drop in November, and Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high in December.
Looking back at the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin fell 31.2% in January and 26% in February of the same year. There was a correction of more than 55% from April to June 2021 as China banned Bitcoin mining. The asset then rose to a new high in November of the same year.
“Deeper mid-cycle corrections are certainly occurring, but with the exception of the 2021 mining ban lift, almost all of them have occurred within broader bullish structures, often above key technical levels such as the 50-week moving average,” Joseph said.
What caused the market movement?
Since October 10th, more than 1.6 million traders have experienced leveraged position eliminations totaling $19.37 billion in 24 hours. Many traders were forced out of their positions, and the effects rippled through the industry.
The effects are still being felt, said TokenBay Capital founder Lucie Ghazmalarian.
“[This is]the largest liquidation event in the history of cryptocurrencies, and it took quite a few weeks for the aftermath to be seen and for the market to consolidate,” Ghazmararian told Access Middle East on Thursday.
“It was also a time when there was a lot of concern that we were reaching the end of the bull market…so there was an increased level of fear in the market.”
In the past, Bitcoin has tended to remain 70% to 80% below its all-time high when a bull market ends and a period of price weakness, often referred to as “crypto winter,” begins. This hasn’t happened yet. However, concerns about this becoming a reality are weighing on investors.
“The timing of the decline is actually where we are in the cycle, and investors are being cautious in case there is an 80% decline,” Ghazmararian said.
