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After the United States detained Venezuela’s president in January and ramped up economic pressure on Cuba in the months that followed, many wondered whether the White House’s next target would be Nicaragua, another Latin American country with an authoritarian leader, but Nicaragua this week ruled out the possibility of new elections.
But the United States has shown little indication of imminent action against Nicaragua, while the country’s co-presidents, Daniel Ortega and his wife Rosario Murillo, have largely kept a low profile and avoided provoking the Trump administration.
Indeed, a few days after the US operation in Venezuela, Nicaragua announced a measure that was perceived as a gesture against the US government. It released dozens of prisoners after the United States demanded their release and then reinstated visa requirements for Cubans that had restricted their migration to North America.
In April, the United States imposed new sanctions on Nicaraguan officials, this time targeting Mr. Ortega and Mr. Murillo’s two sons. Additionally, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stepped up his stance on Managua, recently condemning Ortega’s declaration to abolish elections, but so far stopping short of proposing regime change, as he explicitly did with Cuba.
“Cuba is much more important to Marco Rubio than Nicaragua, and Nicaragua doesn’t have the natural resources that Venezuela does,” said Kai Saylor, a professor in the Department of Global Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Another key difference, he said, is that Nicaragua is ruled by a family and has no clear successor, like Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed the country’s leadership after the United States detained President Nicolás Maduro.
“All leadership options have been eliminated by Ortega and Murillo,” he asserted.
The United States is taking a different approach to Nicaragua than it applied to Caracas and Havana, said Manuel Orozco, a Nicaraguan political scientist who heads the migration, remittances and development program at the U.S.-based Inter-American Dialogue.
The analyst said the White House wants to avoid actions that could lead to waves of immigration and repression, and is instead betting on gradual change without direct intervention.
“One interpretation is that the political inertia of Murillo and Ortega’s dictatorships has given rise to internal conflict, economic slowdown, and social protests, and that (the United States) could use that pressure to its advantage. But the reverse is not possible. If we intervene now, we don’t know what impact it will have on the political transition,” Orozco said.
He stressed that the Sandinista government, which has been in power since 2007, has not faced economic turmoil or street protests, so any U.S. intervention would “force a transition.”
With the United States in dire straits, Ortega Murillo’s government “can take advantage of the situation and keep a low profile,” he said.
In April, Mr. Ortega made an unusual public statement calling U.S. sanctions against his children “mentally deranged.” Three months later, he announced the end of the election and described Maduro’s arrest as a “monster.”
Nicaraguan president rules out future elections
Nicaragua’s strongman President Daniel Ortega, who has been in power for nearly 20 years, told supporters at an event on Monday that he would not hold new elections to prevent the opposition from seizing power.
Saylor said the comments showed the government “believes the United States is not going to focus on Nicaragua and feels safe for Ortega to criticize and insult Trump in this way.”
Orozco suggested the April statement was primarily a message to internal executives. “To put it pejoratively, it’s like letting out a dog to bark, but not letting a dog out to bite. To say we are still anti-imperialist is symbolic of our internal base. The reality is different. There is no expression of solidarity with Venezuela or Cuba in our rhetoric or in our foreign policy,” he said.
CNN referred inquiries to the Nicaraguan government, which does not normally respond to reporters.
Orozco argued that the United States is “deploying a series of pressures” through sanctions, but that Nicaragua rarely responds in a fairly consistent pattern.
“If read incorrectly, it gives the impression that Nicaragua is next (after Venezuela and Cuba) and that the only policy of the United States is direct intervention. There is no calculation of what that means. No one is thinking about what it would mean for the United States to remove these people from power when there is no opposition, the people do not know who the exiled leaders are, and the economy is stable. That is speculation about uncertainty,” he argued.
Such caution could lead the U.S. to think longer term, with an eye on the general election, which is theoretically scheduled for November 2027 (unless President Ortega ignores the threat and cancels it), he said.
“They’re going to simultaneously apply pressure so that some reforms are introduced,” Orozco said. “Sanctions are about pushing the regime into a corner. Nicaragua will not miss the opportunity to enter into democratic change.”
Meanwhile, Saylor noted that the United States is not currently paying much attention to Nicaragua and does not expect any changes to occur in the short term.
“There are sanctions against regime officials, but they happen every three to six months. This is not a sign of any more attention than usual. It’s hard to imagine a major change in U.S. policy towards Nicaragua. We’re currently at war with Iran. There’s a pressure campaign against Cuba, but it’s not having much success. Barring new events, I don’t see much change.”
Saylor noted that Ortega and Murillo are always ready to negotiate with the United States, even if the table for dialogue is not set.
He stressed that signals such as the release of prisoners are “cosmetic concessions to relieve pressure on the United States without threatening U.S. power or truly conceding anything.”
The analyst concluded that elections and democracy in Nicaragua “are far from being realized at this point, especially without a unified opposition.”
“It’s very fragmented. There are some prominent people like[activist and academic]Félix Madarriaga who continue to try to keep Nicaragua’s cause alive in the US and world discourse, but there is no unity, no common cause other than the end of the dictatorship.”
Some opposition parties are hopeful of a possible split within the government, but analysts agree that such a scenario is unlikely.
“It doesn’t seem like there are any alternatives within the administration, and there’s a lot of potential for a rift. One of the children, like Mr. Laureano, could take over another family, but there’s no general or vice president that could come up as a possibility,” Saylor said.
“The most likely scenario is that Rosario Murillo is in a stronger position than ever and continues in power. Daniel (age 80) has become less and less present in public life. Rosario (age 74) has become much more active in day-to-day governance. For Laureano and his children, there has been a greater role in politics, but so far there are no signs of a possible transition,” he reiterated.
Both analysts said Murillo, who received the title of co-president in February 2025, is already at the helm. This also appears to be the position of the State Department, which has started naming Murillo before Ortega in its statements, potentially recognizing her growing political importance.
“Historically, there was a feeling that a transition of power to Rosario would cause a rift within the Sandinista front. That is still a possibility, but the front today is very different from what it was 10 years ago. Rosario is the personal leader. “We owe it to Rosario not only to be a righteous party, but also to ensure that those in power were loyal to her, and not just to Daniel,” Saylor said, acknowledging the presidential couple’s strong control over the security forces and public control. Device.
But Orozco suggested Murillo lacks a popular base and continues to rely on Ortega’s image. “Her political capital with the military is highly operational and transactional in nature. The military is given control of resources, but as pressures arise and cost-benefit ratios change, support will start to wane. Internally, there is a balance of power in her favor, but it is not strong enough to ensure she survives until 2027,” he said.
Mr. Orozco doubted the chances of the family’s dynasty, which has lasted almost 20 years, to succeed and whether he and Mr. Laureano would try to continue it, noting that “some members of the family do not want that model.”
In any case, Orozco emphasized the government’s resilience in facing challenges. “These people have over 40 years of political experience. Very few people know how to deal with these types of people.”
