The S&P 500 is on track to end its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, which could mean more gains next year. Despite seeing significant volatility throughout 2025, the broad index remains on track to end the year up about 17%. This comes after rising more than 24% in 2023 and more than 23% in 2024. “If the index registers at least a 15% annual price increase, returns over the next year average around 8%,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, said in a note. “The average maximum drawdown in recent years has been about 14%, which serves as an important reminder that even strong bull markets are not linear.” SPX YTD Mountain S&P 500, year-to-date The S&P 500’s three consecutive annual gains of 15% or more have only happened twice since 1928, Turnquist noted. During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, the index produced returns above that level from 1995 to 1999, and again from 2019 to 2021. However, unlike the former, the latter posted a loss of over 19% in 2022, sending the S&P 500 into a bear market for the fourth year. “‘Resilient’ may be an understatement,” the strategist said, citing the strength of the U.S. economy and consistent double-digit profit growth reported by U.S. businesses and “robust” consumers despite uncertainty over inflation and President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “This environment has created volatility, especially in the first half of the year, but it has also created opportunities,” Turnquist continued. The S&P 500 index’s performance in 2025 is up about 17%, ranking it among the most common return categories, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group. According to the firm’s research, there have been 23 years since 1928 when the index rose between 10% and 20%, and since 1928, there have been 46 times when the S&P 500 index’s annual performance was better than the current year, and 51 times when it was worse. The company also found that over the other 23 years when the S&P 500 rose between 10% and 20%, the S&P 500 had a median increase of 11.8% in the following year, with a positive return 70% of the time. This again suggests that the index may rise further in 2026.
