People shop for groceries at a Wegmans store in Brooklyn, New York City, July 13, 2026.
Spencer Pratt | Getty Images
Slowing inflation has also dampened some experts’ expectations for the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment in 2027, with new estimates suggesting the adjustment could be between 3.7% and 3.8%.
Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, predicts that Social Security’s COLA could be 3.7% by 2027. This figure is one percentage point below the 2027 COLA of 4.7% that Mr Johnson estimated last month.
“This is a significant fall in inflation, the likes of which the June CPI data has rarely seen over the past five years,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement.
The consumer price index rose 3.5% in the past 12 months as of June, according to new government data released on Tuesday. This was lower than expected due to falling energy prices.
Meanwhile, the Coalition on Senior Citizens, a nonpartisan seniors organization, estimates that Social Security COLAs could be 3.8% in 2027, unchanged from last month’s forecast.
To be sure, these estimates are subject to change. The official COLA for the following year is typically released by the Social Security Administration in October.
Social Security benefits are adjusted annually through cost-of-living adjustments to ensure that your monthly checks keep pace with inflation.
According to the Social Security Administration, annual COLAs have averaged 3.1% over the past 10 years. In 2026, more than 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security income beneficiaries saw their benefits increase by 2.8%.
How Medicare premiums may change in 2027
Retirees’ confidence in their retirement has declined, according to a January survey conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research firm. and research consulting firm Greenwald Research.
The survey of 1,045 retirees found that confidence among retirees fell five points to 73%. According to the survey results, top concerns included inflation, debt, medical costs, housing costs, and potential changes to retirement plans. Two in five retirees said their medical costs were higher than expected, the survey found.
The Medicare Administrative Board’s annual report released in June estimates that the cost of a single medical treatment (standard Medicare Part B premiums, which cover medically necessary and preventive services) could reach $209.50 per month by 2027. This is up from $202.90 per month in 2026, an increase of $6.60 or 3.3%. High-income beneficiaries may pay additional fees.
“This is relatively low,” Johnson said. “The average growth rate for Part B is typically about 5.4% per year, and this has been the case for the past 10 years.”
The initial Medicare Part D deductible for prescription drugs will increase from $615 in 2026 to $700 in 2027, according to the trustees’ report. Meanwhile, the catastrophic threshold, or out-of-pocket maximum, will be set at $2,400 next year, up from $2,100 in 2026. These new standards have been finalized, the report said.
Correction: Standard premiums for Medicare Part B in 2027 will increase from $202.90 per month in 2026. This is an increase of $6.60 or 3.3%. Previous versions had incorrect numerical characteristics.
