Project Freedom aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. experts are skeptical

Defense and geopolitical experts are skeptical that Project Freedom, the Trump administration’s new effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, will succeed.

“In my view, this is not a solution at all,” Jennifer Kavanaugh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a libertarian-leaning foreign policy think tank, said of the operation.

“This in no way addresses the fundamental problem, which is that uncertainty about the safety of shipping means captains and shipping companies are reluctant to take risks,” Kavanaugh said in a phone interview.

But the administration says years of efforts to protect ships passing through the strait from Iranian attack are already having an impact.

“We have opened a shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz to allow the free flow of commerce,” Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, said Monday, just hours after Project Freedom began.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that two U.S. commercial ships, accompanied by a U.S. destroyer, “have already safely passed through the strait, indicating that there are no obstructions to the passage.”

“I know Iranians are embarrassed by this fact,” he boasted. “They say they control the Strait, but they don’t.”

The administration has not set a price or timeline for the new mission, but Hegseth said it will be “focused on scope and temporary in duration.”

Analysts who spoke to CNBC questioned whether the operation offered a short-term or long-term solution to the choke point in the strait, the world’s largest oil corridor, which is at the center of the ongoing conflict with Iran. Before the war, 20 percent of the world’s oil flowed out of the Persian Gulf through this narrow waterway.

They argue that this defensive operation does not adequately address or curb Iran’s ability to threaten ships attempting to transit the strait, making the voyage still too dangerous for most to attempt.

It could also lead to further deterioration of relations with Iran, leading to increased aggression and an extension of diplomatic agreements, which may be the only way to return commercial traffic across the Straits to pre-war levels.

“Project Freedom is unlikely to be a definitive solution to maritime insecurity in the Gulf, but rather a limited and high-risk experiment in deterrence,” Jack Kennedy, head of Middle East and North Africa country risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an email.

President Donald Trump announced the operation in a Truth social post Sunday night, saying the United States had assured countries whose ships are stranded in wars that it would “safely guide ships out of these restricted waterways.”

Centcom announced that the U.S. military will deploy “guided missile destroyers, more than 100 Army, Navy, and Air Force aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 military personnel” to support Project Freedom.

The mission does not involve escorting individual ships and is “very expensive and resource-intensive,” Kavanagh said. The strait is approximately 164 miles long and 34 miles wide at its narrowest point.

“It will have to be permanent until a political solution is found,” she said. “So that’s really not possible.”

Cooper said on a call with reporters Monday afternoon that the current arrangement consists of a “much broader defense package than just escort.”

He also said the United States was encouraging dozens of ships and shipping companies to resume traffic through the strait. “This news has been received with great enthusiasm and we are already seeing some movement,” Cooper said.

Indeed, a U.S.-flagged commercial vessel operated by a subsidiary of Danish shipping giant Maersk safely passed through the strait under U.S. military protection on Monday, the company announced.

But that doesn’t mean a return to normal times, when more than 100 ships, including dozens of oil tankers, passed through the route every day.

Project Freedom was launched more than three weeks after President Trump announced the U.S. blockade of the eastern Strait of Oman. The aim is to increase economic pressure on Tehran by blocking ships from entering and exiting Iranian ports.

The naval blockade remains in effect and came after initial peace talks with Iran failed to reach an agreement. It also followed President Trump’s continued frustration with persistently low traffic in the Straits, even though a fragile ceasefire went into effect last week.

The virtual closure of the critical waterway caused a historic global energy supply shock, dramatically reducing energy supply. oil and gas prices Supplies of fuel, fertilizer and other supplies were disrupted.

Fernando Ferreira, director of geopolitical risk services at Rapidan Energy Group, said in a phone interview that Project Freedom is “likely not enough to start the process of normalizing traffic in Hormuz.”

While the United States can direct mine-free sea lanes and provide air support and cover for passing ships, Ferreira said Iran “clearly has asymmetric capabilities” that would allow it to continue to exert dominance in the region.

“Companies will remain reluctant to move forward for that reason, at least until there is clear demonstration that Iran no longer has these capabilities,” he said.

Kennedy agreed. “Until ceasefire negotiations are resolved and core disputes over sanctions relief, Iran’s enrichment capabilities, and security are resolved, most carriers will probably view transit through Hormuz as an extreme risk, regardless of the presence of the U.S. Navy,” he said.

So far, Iran has responded to Project Freedom with renewed hostility.

The United Arab Emirates said on Monday that three people were injured in Iranian ballistic missile, cruise missile and drone attacks.

Cooper said at a news conference on Monday that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “fired multiple cruise missiles, drones and small boats at the vessels we are protecting.”

On Monday, a South Korean-operated ship also caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump later said Iran carried out the attack.

“The events in Hormuz have made it clear that there is no military solution to the political crisis,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in the X-Post, warning the United States against further military action.

“The United States should be wary of being dragged into the quagmire again by bad actors,” he wrote, adding, “Project Freedom is a project deadlock.”

Despite the invasion, the United States insists its ceasefire with Iran remains in effect. Kavanagh said both sides have an incentive to maintain a strict ceasefire.

But that may not be possible if attacks escalate, Kennedy said.

“Maintaining safe navigation will require acceptance of sustained pressure from Iran, including indefinite convoy operations, expanded base defenses, and direct threats to U.S. naval assets,” he said. “If Iranian attacks escalate or if U.S. ships are attacked, the U.S. government will have to choose between halting operations or escalating militarily.”

President Kennedy said, “Tactically, Project Freedom is feasible, but strategically, without a broader political solution, it is unlikely to restore confidence in the merchant navy in the long term.”