An exhibitor demonstrates the Unitree Robotics G1 humanoid robot at the Humanoid Summit in Tokyo, Friday, May 29, 2026.
Kiyoshi Ota | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Morgan Stanley has significantly raised its outlook for China’s humanoid robot market, saying the industry’s transition from demonstration to commercial deployment has proven faster than expected.
Wall Street banks on Tuesday revised up their forecast for shipments of humanoid robots in China for the second time this year, predicting shipments of 50,000 units this year, nearly double the previous estimate of 28,000 units. The bank had already doubled its initial forecast of 14,000 units in January.
Morgan Stanley estimates that China’s humanoid robot market will reach $2 billion this year and grow to $15 billion by 2030. By then, annual shipments are expected to reach 446,000 units. This forecast includes only external sales, excluding those produced for prototypes, pre-order trials, or internal use.
“Commercial validation, policy support, and supply chain feedback indicate that adoption of humanoid robots in China will occur more quickly,” Morgan Stanley equity analyst Shen Zhong said in a note Tuesday.
China is accelerating its push to dominate the industry, with domestic manufacturers racing to scale up production and introduce robots into real-world environments such as factories, convenience stores and restaurants.
The Chinese government has also made the development of “embodied AI” (artificial intelligence embedded in physical systems such as robots) a priority over the next five years, directing local governments to subsidize land and office space for startups and ordering banks to extend favorable loan terms.
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According to research firm Omdia, about 13,000 humanoids were shipped around the world last year. In terms of shipments, Chinese companies dominated the top five, with US rival Figure AI in seventh place and Tesla in ninth place. Tesla CEO Elon Musk said earlier this year that the company’s humanoid robot, Optimus, would not go on sale to the public until the end of 2027.
Joe Ngai, senior partner and chairman at McKinsey Greater China, said humanoid robotics could be the “next big frontier” for investors focused on China’s rapid technological development.
“When you walk outside[in China]you see startups and more advanced companies and robots dancing, but the industrial use of robots is often under-the-radar,” Ngai told CNBC’s Elaine Yu on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Dalian on Wednesday.
“If you go to factories in China today, they have more automation and robotics than anywhere else in the world,” Ngai added.
Morgan Stanley’s supply chain field study also points to faster time-to-market, citing factories and logistics environments as examples, the further development of unmanned retail stores and interactive commercial services.
The bank cited Shanghai-listed ReaderDrive as a key beneficiary of the rise of humanoids, raising its 12-month price target to 464 yuan ($68) from 269 yuan. The company, headquartered in Suzhou, supplies precision robot parts to domestic humanoid robot manufacturers. Ubtech And Garbot.
Supported by strong shipments and strong customer exposure, Leader Drive could hold a global market share of 40% this year and 25% in the long term, Zhong said.
Chinese robot companies are also increasingly looking overseas.
Shanghai-based robotics company Thea Intelligent, which began trading in Hong Kong on Wednesday, has been expanding beyond China since 2021, with overseas revenue from more than 65 countries accounting for 18% of total sales last year, according to the company’s chief operating officer Jonathan Huang.
But Hwang told CNBC’s Emily Cheung on Monday that geopolitical uncertainty and escalating trade tensions remain the biggest headwinds. He said the company is focused on geographical diversification to reduce dependence on a single market and strict compliance with local regulations in each market in which it operates.
Policymakers in Washington are increasingly wary of China’s advances in artificial intelligence and the risks of increasing reliance on Chinese technology in recent years.
“If Washington treats this contest only as a race to achieve new capability benchmarks, it could lead in invention but lag in influencing where and how AI is used around the world,” Suzanne Nossel, the Lester Crown senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy and international order at the Chicago Council on International Studies, said in an op-ed published in Foreign Policy this week.
“A marketing campaign for the U.S. AI stack will not accelerate adoption quickly enough to keep pace with China,” she noted.
—CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.
