Efforts to raise the minimum wage have won in states across the country in recent years, with support from voters of both political parties. The issue is currently hotly contested in the deep red state, which is scheduled to vote in less than a month as part of the midterm election primary season.
Oklahoma’s mid-June primary ballot measure (State Question 832) would raise the state’s minimum wage from $7.25 an hour, where it has been since 2009, to $12 an hour in 2027, $13.50 an hour in 2028, and $15 an hour in 2029, with the minimum wage increasing annually starting in 2029 based on cost-of-living adjustments.
Voters will focus on the state’s minimum wage fight in the June 16 special election, which coincides with the state’s federal, state and local primaries, and includes the U.S. Senate seat vacated by term limits and the governorship.
Grassroots efforts to raise the minimum wage have been a long-running struggle in the state. After a series of legal battles and political delays, Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt announced in 2024 that he would place the bill on the June 2026 election ballot. The idea has been controversial in recent years, with some politicians and business groups opposing the idea, including the Oklahoma Public Affairs Council, Oklahoma Farm Bureau, Oklahoma Chamber of Commerce, and National Federation of Independent Business.
Here are some keys to making your next decision in the Oklahoma polls. This can reveal nuanced differences in how voters feel about inflation and the economy.
Oklahoma continues to resist popular political issues
Oklahoma is a political laggard when it comes to raising the minimum wage. From 1996 to 2025, voters across the country approved 28 of 32 minimum wage increases on statewide ballots, including in traditionally red states such as Arkansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Alaska, South Dakota and Florida.
“I think this is a bipartisan issue,” said Alice Jump, a partner at law firm Leavis Page Jump who specializes in employment and labor issues. “Affordability is a big issue that both Republicans and Democrats are concerned about. This is going to hurt their pockets,” she said.
According to Ballotpedia, Oklahoma matches the federal minimum wage but is well below the state’s average minimum wage of $11.51. An analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, a progressive think tank, found that raising the state’s minimum wage would increase wages by more than $783 million overall for 357,700 Oklahoma workers, or about one-fifth of the state’s wage earners. This total includes workers who benefit directly and indirectly from this policy. Affected full-time and year-round workers will see an average annual salary increase of $2,322, according to the Economic Policy Institute.
Business lobby group, Republican Governor Stitt opposes wage increase
Business groups have voiced strong opposition to this measure due to the added costs. “SQ 832 will place significant pressure on small businesses, family farms and ranches, and other local employers who are already operating on thin margins,” said a spokesperson for the Oklahoma Public Affairs Council. “Experience from other states shows that such policies could reduce work hours for Oklahoma families and seniors, eliminate entry-level jobs, accelerate automation, and significantly raise prices.”
The National Federation of Independent Business recently ran a statewide campaign urging Oklahomans to vote no on State Question 832, saying it would drive up prices, kill jobs, and hurt small businesses and family farms.
A spokesperson for the Oklahoma Department of Agriculture said the measure would “fundamentally change on-farm job opportunities and dramatically increase labor costs and regulations at a time when farmers face record input prices.”
In a recent interview with Coco News 5, outgoing Oklahoma Governor Stitt urged voters to vote against the bill due to concerns about its inflationary aspects. “It’s terrible policy. The government doesn’t have to go into private business and say, ‘Hey, pay this and this,'” Stitt said. “The bigger issue with the state is that we have a mandated minimum wage increase. It goes up every year. If you look out 10 years from now, we’re going to have a higher mandated minimum wage than California. That’s going to put some small businesses out of business, right?”
California loses vote in recent wage fight
As the campaign draws to a close, supporters are trying to drum up support across the state through street signs, bumper stickers and community visits. “We remain hopeful that we can be successful on election night and prove wrong those who thought it was impossible,” said Amber England, a spokeswoman for Raise the Wage Oklahoma, a nonpartisan grassroots group that advocates for ballot initiatives.
According to Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, an Oklahoma-based Republican polling firm, when Oklahoma’s minimum wage effort began, it was the first time in almost 30 years that a statewide effort to raise the minimum wage had been defeated at the ballot box anywhere in the nation. But in 2024, California voters rejected an increase to $18 an hour.
“It will be largely up to Oklahomans to determine whether this was an anomaly or whether recent inflation has changed voter perceptions,” Pat McPheron, president of Cole Hargrave, said in a recent blog post, suggesting that concerns about rising wages that contribute to inflation may be creating a new source of resistance. A poll conducted by the company in late April showed that the initiative would pass if an election were held at that time.
Voter turnout could be the deciding factor
England says the biggest challenge is getting people to vote. Independents will not be able to vote in the upcoming primaries for various government officials, but they will be allowed in state ballot questions. However, it is unclear how this will affect voter turnout among independents and overall voter turnout. About 53% of registered voters in Oklahoma are Republicans, about 25% are Democrats, and about 20% are independents, according to statistics from the Oklahoma State Board of Elections.
Cole Hargrave’s poll predicts that 69% of projected voters will be registered Republicans.
Complicating matters is the fact that Oklahoma’s voter turnout rate is among the lowest in the nation. The overall turnout of Oklahoma voters in the 2024 presidential general election was 53.3%, compared to the national average of 64.1%, Ballotpedia reported, citing data from the U.S. Elections Project and others. The overall turnout of voters in the 2022 midterm general elections was 39.6%, compared to the national average of 46.2%.
“The challenge is not support. We have support from all parties,” England’s Prime Minister said.
What happens as a result of the election, whether you win or lose?
Sarah Giocka, a labor and employment attorney with the law firm Dickinson Wright, said even if the bill passes, the Oklahoma Legislature could decide to restrict some of it, similar to what happened recently in Missouri. Particularly in red states, Jodka said, Congress is likely to step in and “reflect as much as we can.”
In 2018, Missouri voters approved a minimum wage initiative. But the state Legislature repealed some of the ballot measures, including statewide paid sick leave. Additionally, the state’s minimum wage increased to $15 this year, but there will be no further increases based on the Consumer Price Index.
If Oklahoma’s ballot measure fails, the current minimum wage will remain at the federal minimum wage level across the state, and Oklahoma will continue to be a “relatively low-wage state,” said Jump of Levis Page Jump.
While some states, such as California and Arizona, allow local governments to set their own minimum wages, Oklahoma does not, leaving workers at the $7.25 level even in the state’s most populated areas, Giocka said.
If that happens, advocates will ask state legislatures to raise the minimum wage, which could be harder to do in traditionally red states, England said. But England said workers would continue to push for change. “Failure to pass this bill does not mean we will stop fighting for higher wages for Oklahoma workers,” she said. “This campaign has ignited a fire that is making workers in this state visible and heard for the first time in a while.”
Jump said he doesn’t expect people to move to neighboring states with higher minimum wage laws, but some Oklahoma employers may decide to take matters into their own hands. “Just because the minimum wage isn’t going up doesn’t mean employers can’t pay more. If employers want to attract talent, they’ll pay more,” Jump said.
