(This is The Best Stocks in the Market, brought to you by Josh Brown and Sean Russo of Ritholtz Wealth Management.) Josh — Pure and simple Allstate (ALL) is on a breakout. Not quite there, but close enough. I’m calling you. After a long period of decline, prices are now challenging the upper end of the range. We’ll explain this after Sean talks. Yes, we are in a market driven by an AI capital investment boom. No, that doesn’t mean AI stocks are the only game in the game. Is Allstate still trading just below its all-time high? Let’s get started. Stocks to watch: Allstate Corporation (ALL) Sean — Allstate (and many other insurance companies) is essentially a premium collection company. They receive premiums, pay claims, and make a profit on the spread. The driving force behind premium growth is property liability insurance (auto and home), which generated $14.8 billion in earned premiums in the first quarter of 2026, with profitability also surging. Lower-than-expected catastrophe losses and significant rate hikes (7.2% passed on to homeowners, as you’ve probably heard in the news) boosted profitability, resulting in a 10% year-over-year increase in net investment income. Allstate is also expanding its policy base to 212 million, which will increase volume in addition to pricing. The biggest wildcard in a given time period is catastrophe exposure. A worsening hurricane or wildfire season could wipe out quarterly underwriting profits. Allstate is on a steady upward trend. The stock has hit new all-time highs 17 times this year. It’s a consistent movement, not determined by a one-day or two-day blowout. In terms of total return, the stock is up 28% in the past year and 87% (23% annualized) over the past three years. In addition to premium investments, the company allocates capital through share buybacks and dividends. Dividends (with a 2% yield) and share repurchase program are both significant components of total returns. Allstate returned a total of $881 million to shareholders in the first quarter of 2026 through dividends and stock repurchases, with common stock down 3% year-over-year to start 2026. Now Josh gets technical… Risk Management Josh — ALL spent much of last year in limbo, languishing between $190 and $205 as the market weighed whether the business had turned a corner. it’s been. The stock broke out of its long consolidation range late in the first quarter of 2026, pushing into the $220 area before pulling back to digest the move. It has now cooled just above its 50-day moving average, sitting on a clean launch pad that could push it above $222 and into new all-time high territory. Sean goes into more detail on the basics. The RSI of 52 leaves plenty of room for further upside without a concentration of momentum that tends to reverse quickly. This is a healthy amount of momentum as the stock is digesting significant gains. I love to see stocks hold their ground after a rally, and that’s what’s happening here. Traders monitoring ALL would like to clear $220 and maintain volume, which would open the chart to a whole new range. For traders, the 50-day at $211 is a logical stopping point for further declines, but being too close could cause a whiplash situation, so I use the 200-day at $206 as a deeper support level. A close below $200 will cause the chart to collapse and break out of the bottom of the range. Disclosure: (none) All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, its parent or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated on television, radio, the Internet, or another medium. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice or a recommendation to purchase any securities or other financial assets. The content is general in nature and does not reflect your unique personal circumstances. The above may not be appropriate for your particular situation. Before making any financial decisions, you should strongly consider seeking the advice of your own financial or investment advisor. Click here for full disclaimer.
