Four years after their victory at Lusail Stadium in Qatar 2022, Argentina have the chance to become one of only three teams to defend their World Cup crown.
They may be led by the legendary Lionel Messi, they may be South American champions, and yes, the holders may be the upset kings of the tournament, but they are not the favorites to win.
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They aim to win the tournament for the first time in more than half a century since Brazil defended their title in 1962, and standing in their way is Spain, the European champions and favorites before the tournament.
Al Jazeera Sports looks at why the defending champions are considered outsiders for Sunday’s final and what their chances are to upset the odds.
Why is Spain the favorite to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?
Spain entered the 2026 tournament as the number one team in the world rankings and were favorites to win the trophy, but lost their spot midway through the campaign to France’s aggressive attack.
The stars of Kylian Mbappé and Ballon d’Or holder Ousmane Dembélé were ably supported by Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola, but the latter’s Paris Saint-Germain teammate and French football star Desir Douet was relegated to support act.
Heading into the semi-finals between Europe’s powerhouses, France were firmly established as favorites to win the title as long as they could defeat Spain.
That couldn’t be done.
Spain struggled to a 2-0 win against France, with Mbappé, Dembele and others plowing a lonely and desperate groove in a limited effort to find a foothold.
In the first match of the tournament, Cape Verde, who were playing for the first time, took the lead, but from then on all eyes were on the Spaniards.
They limped through Uruguay, Portugal, and Belgium, but were unable to open fire as a whole until they encountered the French.
Now Spain’s confidence, even if it had been in doubt, was restored.
What strengths in Spain should Argentina be concerned about?
This question may be easier to answer in terms of where their weaknesses lie. It doesn’t seem like that much, but that’s why the overwhelming performance up to the semi-finals was such a surprise.
As the tournament began, coach Luis de la Fuente tried to rally the troops and the country as a whole by talking about a “united” Spain.
Not a single Real Madrid player was selected to represent Spain at this tournament, raising questions about the credibility of the European champions’ current structure.
Eight of the team’s 26 players play for Barcelona, who easily defended their domestic title last season.
“For me, the greatest team in the world is definitely the Spanish national team,” de la Fuente said.
“I don’t look at the origin or background of a player. What matters is a Spanish player who represents his country’s national team and is proud to be part of a united nation.”
It’s not just the Catalan conundrum that de la Fuente has to solve.
Of the Spanish semi-finalists who will start in midfield and attack, Fabian Ruiz is the centerpiece of Champions League holders PSG’s midfield, Alex Baena is the darling of Atletico Madrid’s side, Rodri is Manchester City’s 2024 Ballon d’Or winning maestro, and Mikel Oyarzabal, the sole frontman, is putting Real Sociedad on the map for a global audience.
The 29-year-old’s five goals so far in the competition could give him an iconic place in Spanish football history if he wins the trophy.
Next is Spine, which is based in Barcelona, Spain. Lamine Yamal is world football’s new poster child and, despite being quiet due to a pre-tournament hamstring injury, he is seen as the successor to the sport’s global superstars Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, along with Real rival Mbappe.
The 19-year-old starred in many of his appearances to help Spain win Euro 2024, but his devoted fans are waiting for his magical moment at the World Cup.
Dani Olmo is the orchestrator of the attack, cutting in between the defensive duo in midfield and looking to feed the wingers and strikers.
At just 19 years old, Pau Kvarusi has established himself as the center of defense for club and country.
The Spaniard’s strength is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that Athletic Bilbao’s 24-year-old winger, one of the hottest talents in the game, has gone largely unnoticed despite playing a key role in the Euro 2024 campaign.
What kind of World Cup final will Spain vs. Argentina produce?
It’s hard to imagine a final match like Argentina’s 2-1 win over England in the semi-finals, but they also recently came from behind to beat Egypt in the last 16.
England, which boasts star players from Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Barcelona following the recent transfer of Anthony Gordon, dominated Argentina until Gordon’s goal in the 55th minute.
Argentina then finished the game with 64% possession, aided by England’s withdrawal.
England are not famous for keeping the ball, but Spain are, and will look to limit Messi’s attacking threat by defending their midfield and tiring Argentina, just as England did until the goal.
Even if Spain take the lead, de la Fuente cannot be expected to order all his troops to protect their own box, as Thomas Tuchel recklessly told England to protect their own defense in Atlanta on Wednesday.
Rodri and Ruiz will be tasked with controlling the fight from start to finish. Yamal, Olmo and Baena will be tasked with supporting Oyarzabal at every opportunity and will be expected to hit back with pace when the time comes, should Argentina need to chase the game at full speed, as they did against England.
Is facing Spain the best chance for Messi Argentina?
Lionel Messi, who has been the star of Barcelona and Spanish football for almost two decades, will be seen as Argentina’s best chance to defend their title.
Messi, who has already scored eight goals in the tournament and is expected to win the Golden Boot barring a hat-trick from Oyarzabal, has allayed any doubts about his ability to continue leading Argentina at the age of 39.
Messi was the lone figure for much of the last-four win over England, but it was Messi who provided two assists as Argentina staged a late comeback. Lautaro Martinez benefited from this, heading home the winning goal in stoppage time to score his third goal of the tournament. No other player on either team has surpassed these three goals.
Martinez, who leads Italian club Inter Milan, is likely to start on the bench again in the final as Atletico Madrid duo Julián Alvarez and Giuliano Simeone will have to play on the flanks.
Behind these three, there will be a wall that the English have not been able to overcome.
It starts with three strong midfielders who play in every game: Alexis Mac Allister, Leandro Paredes, and Enzo Fernandes, who scored the team’s equalizer in the semi-finals.
Will Argentina’s defense keep Spain and Yamal at bay?
At the center of Argentina’s defense there are two people who divide opinion. Former England international and Manchester United defender Gary Neville has described Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero as “the best, worst centre-half pair in the world”.
“They seem to be scoring goals every game,” Neville said on the Overlap podcast.
“But when you look at them, they’re scoring goals, they’re heading the ball, they’re literally everywhere – it’s incredible.
“Sometimes it’s incredible, and the next it’s sublime to ridiculous.”
Romero, who plays for Tottenham Hotspur in the English Premier League, called the comments “ridiculous.”
The pair, both 28 years old, will leave nothing behind by the time the final kick of the tournament is taken, and Martinez is undaunted by the criticism.
Neville’s former United teammate Paul Scholes has previously said the club would not win titles with Martinez at centre-half, with his height of 1.75m being one of the main reasons for his comments.
But the Old Trafford crowd have warmly welcomed Martinez due to his dedication to his cause, with the defender’s long spells out through injury being blamed for the defender’s struggles at the back over the past two seasons.
Oyarzabal is six centimeters taller than Martinez, but Spain’s endless balls into the box are unlikely to decide the final.
Moreover, the headlines are likely to be written by Barcelona’s past, present and perhaps future, but will it be the magic of Messi or Yamal that will leave its mark on this World Cup?
Game salespeople and investors, as well as fans, will be hoping that a beautiful moment from one of the superstars will leave an undeniable, irreplaceable and marketable mark not just on the finals, but on the 2026 finale.
