A shopper wears a limited edition FIFA World Cup themed jersey in New York City, Friday, June 12, 2026, in New York, USA.
Bing An | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Goldman Sachs said Thursday’s June employment report could be stronger than expected due to the impact of the World Cup.
Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 115,000 jobs, according to the Dow Jones Consensus of economists surveyed, a step slower than May’s solid 172,000 job growth.
But Goldman said private data from small business payroll company Homebase suggests “The Beautiful Game” had at least a small impact on employment, contributing to about 40,000 job openings last month.
According to the company’s latest report, although the pace of hiring in June slowed overall, it was down 1.2% year-on-year in the 11 World Cup host cities and 3.5% in other cities. Additionally, Homebase data shows employment in the hospitality industry increased by 9.5%, likely due to World Cup-related increases.
“Our historical analysis suggests that the World Cup could boost payroll growth by 40,000 jobs in June, with the impact concentrated in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors,” Goldman economists Lonnie Walker and Jessica Linders said in a note.
As a result, Goldman expects total nonfarm payrolls to increase by 140,000, still below the previous month’s pace but significantly better than the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.
Goldman also said the number could be higher because the first of three estimates in the previous June jobs report showed an upward bias. The original June statistics have been revised downward in each of the past four years.
