On June 11th, soccer teams from 48 countries set out for a chance to win the World Cup, but only four still have hope.
The top four teams in the FIFA rankings, who have held the last eight titles, will clash on Tuesday and Wednesday in hopes of qualifying for the World Cup finals, which will be played on Sunday, July 19th at New York/New Jersey Stadium on what is scheduled to be the biggest stage in sports.
Recommended stories
list of 4 itemsend of list
Al Jazeera ranks the winning candidates as follows:
4. Argentina
What is this? The defending champion as an outsider?
Well, Algeria, Austria, Jordan, Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland have to be one of the hospitable roads ever to the business end of the World Cup, but La Albiceleste haven’t exactly been convincing along that line.
They were sweated out by Cape Verde and Egypt in the finals, then found a way to win in dramatic circumstances. That pattern was repeated Saturday night against Switzerland in Kansas City, where after Alexis Mac Allister’s early opener, the Reds went nearly 90 minutes without a single shot on target.
After 120 minutes in sweltering conditions, their aging side eventually won out. Things might have been very different if Switzerland had left 11 men on the field, but then again, in the end the defending champions found a way to win despite being well below their personal best.
Can they get away with a performance like that against England? Well, England fans might say the same about the Three Lions. Harry Kane and Lionel Messi also fared well below their best in their last-eight clash.
Messi’s emotional outpouring at full-time in the come-from-behind win against Egypt showed how close the three-time champions were to elimination. Emotions will run high and tears are expected to be shed for both teams at full-time in an already emotional match against England.
If Argentina, and Messi, playing for the first time against the Three Lions, can regain their dignity and win, knocking their arch-rivals out of the tournament for the third year in a row in the knockout stages, it will give them great confidence and momentum heading into the final.
But nothing they showed in the US this summer suggests that could happen.
And even if they do, whether it can give them enough of an edge against European champions Spain or against a vengeful France, whom they beat on penalties in the epic final of Qatar 2022, is another matter entirely.
3. England
Have we seen England’s best in this tournament? Probably not. Still, they reached the semifinals here for the fourth time in their history.
The win against Norway wasn’t pretty or convincing, but manager Thomas Tuchel admitted they were lucky to get through thanks to Jude Bellingham, who once again led the team in key moments. Can a midfielder really win the Golden Boot? He has already scored six goals, leaving him just two behind Messi and Kylian Mbappé.
To Tuchel’s frustration, apart from the purple 20 minutes of the opening game’s 4-2 win against Croatia, England have yet to dominate his team, relying on counter-attacking bursts to give them a 3-2 lead to defend in an epic round-of-16 victory over Mexico on the Aztec cauldron.
What they have shown is a wealth of character, and perhaps more will be needed if they are to end their 60-year bid for a second World Cup title.
The match against Argentina will be more than 11-on-11. The hype and pressure will be enormous as the ghosts of soccer history will be lining up alongside both teams.
Some possible positives for England would be that they have already achieved comparable results in this tournament. He is ranked 4th in the world and has advanced to the top four. Anything else will be a bonus. No one thinks of them as a top two team in the world, but that might help ease some of the burden of expectations.
After a trip to the highlands of Mexico City and the steamy heat and humidity of Miami, it will be a welcome return to the climate-controlled 22C (71.6F) of Atlanta, where England defeated the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the Round of 32.
There were also no new suspensions, with Jarrell Quansah having one game remaining on his two-game suspension. Reece James got some playing time against Norway. Meanwhile, England will be hoping that Declan Rice, who was clearly unfit due to illness, makes a full recovery after making a 45-minute cameo.
An aging Argentina team has struggled against the pace, movement and trickery of Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland over the past three matches, and Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon and even Marcus Rashford will be well placed to take advantage of that.
Aside from Messi, Argentina itself doesn’t pose too many question marks in attack, but Julian Alvarez’s incredible strike against Switzerland could be just the beginning of his own World Cup.
All things considered, England are expected to reach the final, but France have perhaps gone a step too far and even Spain will be a big ask, albeit with the added incentive of revenge for their Euro 2024 final defeat.
2. Spain
Apart from a one-sided clash against Austria in the round of 32, they are the third semi-finalists yet to reach top gear in this tournament.
La Roja’s stoic defense may have been broken for the first time by Belgium in the top eight this summer, but the 649 minutes leading up to that goal was the longest run without conceding a goal in World Cup history, and they have still allowed just seven shots on target in their last six games.
Goal contribution statistics may not reflect it, but Lamine Yamal is showing signs of returning to top form following a season-ending hamstring injury in April, while La Roja’s tricky carousel of attackers has caused problems for the defense in all six games so far, with Mikel Merino going down in legend as last-gasp winners against Portugal and Belgium.
However, top scorer Mikel Oyarzabal, with four goals, has been out of form in recent games and is unlikely to pose much of a threat to France’s backline.
Teenage defender Pau Kvarsi is aiming to be at home on the biggest stage, but he has yet to face the same challenges that Kylian Mbappé, Michael Oliseh and Ousmane Dembele face.
If Spain reaches the final, it will be the favorite to win. Spain have only reached the last four of the World Cup once before, but they should be able to outperform them in the third time, despite having beaten France in their previous two meetings.
1. France
Before the last eight match against Morocco, we argued that France were top-class, with a formidable four-man attack and a defense that had yet to be really tested but had conceded just two goals in five games.
Well, that’s 6 on 6 twice, even if it hasn’t really been tested yet. Such was the toothless attack from the Atlas Lions on a night they lost 2-0.
Mbappé scored another quality goal against Morocco, furthering his qualification for the Golden Boot and the World Cup’s all-time scoring record, while Oliseh, Dembele, Desiree Douye and Bradley Barcola continue to threaten all over the field in a way that no other team on the planet can.
Spain, especially in defence, will pose a different challenge, and with the likes of Dani Olmo, Alex Baena, Ferran Torres and Fabian Ruiz taking up promising positions around Oyarzabal, not to mention super-sub Merino, the underpowered French defense will also be given its own test this time around.
The team that defeats France will secure the World Cup victory, but no other team can match the dynamism of Les Bleus’ forwards. The game against Spain will probably be their toughest challenge, but it is one that Didier Deschamps’ side can hope to overcome, especially with the added motivation of losing to La Roja in Euro 2024 and the Nations League semi-finals in the past two years.
