On Monday night, the eyes of the football world will be on Dallas. One of the highlight matches of this year’s World Cup will be a match between Europe’s powerhouses Spain and Portugal.
The Iberian neighbors have been doing this for more than a century and have met 43 times, including several in major tournaments, but this could be their biggest yet, with a place in the quarter-finals on the line.
Will Ronaldo start against Spain and does he deserve it?
Forget hydration breaks, VAR and Golden Boot laces, perhaps the biggest talking point of the World Cup so far has been Cristiano Ronaldo’s involvement in the Portuguese side.
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The 41-year-old was in the spotlight in the Group K opener against the Democratic Republic of the Congo, playing the full game in the 1-1 draw, but missed a chance to win the game.
He responded to his critics with a more complete performance against Uzbekistan, scoring twice before the break, becoming the first player to score in six World Cups, but he could have added another in the 5-0 win in which he played the full game.
Ronaldo, who declared on social media after the match that he was “back,” was on the fringes, playing the full 90 minutes in Portugal’s goalless draw with Colombia, which finished second in the group.
The chaotic win over Croatia that sealed 16th place showed some of the good old CR7, with a sublime finish and a subdued finish to equalize from the penalty spot midway through the second half after a narrow offside denied them good control, only for them to be dragged out by Roberto Martinez in the 81st minute with the game tied.
His first reaction was irritation and reluctance, shaking his head and muttering words, but then he walked away. Gonzalo Ramos replaced him as the focal point of the attack and headed home the winning goal in stoppage time.
So, should coach Martinez protect Ramos’ trust and keep Ronaldo as a viable substitute for the match against Spain?
It is worth bearing in mind that at the last World Cup in Qatar, Ronaldo was left out of the last 16 match against Switzerland by then manager Fernando Santos.
Ronaldo was unhappy at being substituted so soon after the match was tied 1-1 in the final group game, but South Korea secured victory with a last-minute goal.
Ramos scored a hat-trick in the 6-1 win over Switzerland, but was replaced by Ronaldo in the final 17 minutes when the score was already 5-1.
Ronaldo is very likely to start and he is fit for the big moments, but Spain’s backline will be formidable as they aim for an unprecedented sixth straight World Cup clean sheet.
Ronaldo is expected to come off the bench, but don’t expect Ronaldo to finish the game, as coach Martinez has shown he is willing to sacrifice him in the pursuit of victory.
History favors La Roja
Portugal and Spain have rarely separated in their last five meetings in major competitions, with each team winning once and the other three ending in draws.
This includes their most recent encounter at the 2018 World Cup, where Ronaldo scored a stunning hat-trick, the 3-3 draw and their last knockout match, as well as the semi-finals of UEFA Euro 2012, which ended in a goalless draw before Spain advanced on penalties.
However, Portugal have only won once (D6 L5) in their last 12 meetings with Spain, and that 1-0 victory came more than 20 years ago in the group stage of Euro 2004 (courtesy of Nuno Gomez).
However, they will be confident after defeating Spain, albeit on penalties, in their most recent encounter in the Nations League final in June 2025.
Portugal vs Spain predictions
Ahead of kick-off, Luis de la Fuente’s side are tipped to be the favorites to win, and for good reason.
La Roja remains undefeated in its last 34 games (wins, 25 losses, 9 losses), just shy of the longest undefeated streak in history of 35 games from February 2007 to June 2009. Of all the European countries, only Italy boasts a longer unbeaten record, with 37 matches between 2018 and 2021.
Much of that success has come under coach de la Fuente, who is undefeated (W10 D1) in his first 11 games at both the World Cup and the Euros, conceding just four goals.
If Spain beat Portugal, the Spanish manager will join Aime Jacquet and Louis van Gaal as the only managers to avoid defeat in the first 12 games of a major international tournament.
Spain’s advantage extends far beyond results. At this World Cup, the average expected goals (xG) difference per game was +1.80 (2.0 for, 0.2 against), the highest by any European country that made it past the group stage since France’s average of +1.82 in 1998.
The Opta supercomputer struggled to overtake Spain as they progressed to the quarter-finals, with de la Fuente’s side winning within 90 minutes in 49.2% of 25,000 pre-match simulations.
However, Portugal are confident after their narrow win over Croatia and will want to take every chance they have, with odds currently at 25.6 per cent and a draw (meaning extra time and possibly penalties) accounting for the remaining 25.2 per cent.
What about Lamine Yamal?
Ramin Yamal is perhaps the only global icon yet to appear on the biggest stage.
The 18-year-old turns 19 on July 13, the day before Spain returns to Dallas to line up for the semi-finals against France or Morocco, but suffered a season-ending hamstring injury while playing for Barcelona in April, putting his full World Cup appearance in doubt.
He played just 141 minutes in the group stage matches against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, scoring in the second leg, but de la Fuente said he was in “perfect” form ahead of the finals.
Having started the attack on the left in the Round of 32 win over Austria, he looked much more like his ‘old’ self, becoming La Roja’s central threat in the first half and creating a buzz of anticipation in the stands every time he picked up the ball.
Having developed an understanding with Yamal, Pedro Polo replaced Marcos Llorente at right-back for that match in Los Angeles, but de la Fuente may choose to return to Llorente for the game against Portugal, as de la Fuente may prefer Polo’s defensive qualities over his offensive threat.
Will this be a nightmare matchup for FIFA?
Well, this is definitely a tie in the round of 16 between two of the strongest teams in European and world soccer.
Portugal’s failure to win the group stage would have caused some upset among the organizers. This is because if Portugal were able to get past Ghana and Switzerland, it would become even more difficult to advance to the finals, and the possibility of a Messi vs. Ronaldo matchup in the quarterfinals would be eliminated.
With Germany and the Netherlands eliminated in the round of 32, the organizers would not have wanted to lose another elite favorite in the last 16, and this matchup ensured that was the case.
The winner of Monday’s draw will face either the United States or Belgium in the last eight, followed by France or Morocco in the semi-finals, with the final on July 19 providing the only chance for a showdown between world icons Ronaldo and Messi.
What about the midfield that determines the outcome of a game?
Spain’s victory over Austria was the most complete performance of the tournament so far, and in major tournaments it doesn’t matter how you start, it matters how you finish.
Rodri and Pedri have been key figures in the team, starting every game in the middle of the park, even if they have not been able to reach the heights of form this season.
De la Fuente shuffled the squad with Dani Olmo, Mikel Merino and Fabian Ruiz, all of whom were given opportunities in roles slightly above the duo. It is Olmo who seems to have made this shirt his own, while Alex Baena has usurped Gabi and Ferran Torres as reliable options on the right side of the attack, with Nico Williams injured and Mikel Oyarzabal and Lamine Yamal locked in in the center and left respectively.
This should be an interesting matchup, as the world’s top two center midfields could face off against each other.
Joao Neves and Vicinha have just won their second straight Champions League with Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), while Bruno Fernandes has had a record-breaking season with Manchester United in the Premier League.
Although they conceded a goal to Ruben Neves in the final group match, in which they had already qualified, they expect Martinez to play as a trio with proven track record and trust.
Spain dominated possession in all four games, while Portugal did the same in three of their four games, with the exception of their final group game against Colombia.
After the win against Croatia, coach Martinez said: “We know Spain well and they know us well. I think it’s going to be a great game. Both teams want the ball and want to attack, quickly regaining possession and creating chances. I think it’s going to be a great game.”
The team that wins the midfield battle is likely to advance to the quarterfinals, which will be held in Los Angeles on Friday.
