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The devastating earthquake that hit Venezuela last month would have been a test for any government. But it attacked a country still reeling from the fallout from the detention of strongman Nicolas Maduro six months ago, turning a natural disaster into a political test for acting President Delcy Rodriguez and revealing anger over the country’s response.
Two devastating earthquakes struck Venezuela in quick succession on June 24, killing more than 3,000 people, but experts say this is a significant underestimate.
Many people at home and abroad believe authorities acted too slowly and failed to properly deal with the tragedy, but Rodriguez firmly rejects that criticism.
Analysts interviewed by CNN said the earthquake was a decisive test for the transitional government, exposing its political fragility and the limits of state power in disaster response. They argue that the outcome remains highly uncertain and that given the supervisory role that Washington currently plays in Venezuela, U.S. action will be decisive.
“Delcy Rodriguez now faces her greatest leadership test,” said Imdat Honor, a scholar at Florida International University. “At the same time, public anger is growing over poor management and slow response. But in authoritarian regimes, such crises often strengthen those in power.”
Mr. O’Neill suggested that Mr. Rodriguez could “use emergency regulations to centralize power, strengthen security, and postpone political reforms in the name of stability and reconstruction.”
“The disaster has exposed the weakness of the nation,” Honor said. “But in the short term, it has given the government space to continue holding on to power rather than being forced to give it up.”
But beyond any political opportunity, disaster could pose a threat to Rodriguez, as the government remains extremely weak and the challenges of post-earthquake recovery are daunting.
“The immediate challenges are enormous, but so are the challenges of economic recovery and rebuilding devastated areas,” said Phil Ganson, an analyst at Caracas-based International Crisis Group. “That would require huge amounts of money, which the government doesn’t have.”
The June 24 earthquake ranks as one of the deadliest natural disasters in Venezuela’s history. More than 3,685 people have been reported dead, more than 16,000 people have been injured and more than 17,000 people have been evacuated, country officials said.
Hundreds of buildings were damaged and the economic impact is estimated to be around 6% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).
A disaster of this scale would pose challenges for any government, but analysts say the situation in Venezuela is particularly dire because it occurred in a country whose institutions have been weakened by 25 years of rule by followers of late President Hugo Chávez.
“The state just doesn’t have the capacity to respond,” Ganson said. “We don’t have the budget, we don’t have the people, we don’t have the plans, we don’t have the leadership, we don’t have the equipment, we don’t have the heavy machinery.”
On the ground, numerous eyewitness accounts suggest that the government’s response is inadequate, with many people still trapped or missing.
Families desperately search for news of loved ones after Venezuela’s devastating earthquake
Asked about the criticism at a press conference last Thursday, Rodriguez denied that authorities had been slow to respond. Instead, she said 4,000 personnel were deployed within the first 24 hours, and that number quickly rose to 19,000 with the support of international rescue teams.
“Anyone who wants a reality check is welcome,” she said. “This is our instruction to the national government: deploy and operate with vigor, save lives and care for survivors, as we have done and will continue to do. Despite the challenges, we are receiving support from both domestic and international sources.”
See in photos: Powerful earthquake hits Venezuela
Against this backdrop, opposition groups are increasing their criticism of the Venezuelan government. Before the earthquake, some opposition figures were optimistic. This was especially so after government officials met with former National Assembly President Dinora Figuera, elected in 2015 and the last president of Venezuela’s National Assembly recognized by the international community.
Rebels say the talks could have been a first step toward negotiating a political transition with U.S. support. However, Venezuelan academic Carlos Torrerealba told CNN that any ongoing processes were interrupted by the earthquake.
“The uncertainty is only going to deepen,” Torrerealba said, adding that any political change would almost certainly result in further delays. That process was already unclear, but now it seems even further away, he said.
The opposition’s dilemma is exemplified by one of its most prominent leaders, Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Colina Machado. She has tried to enter Venezuela since the earthquake to no avail. In a video posted to X on June 29, Machado said he was in Panama and accused the Venezuelan government of preventing him from entering the country to take part in relief efforts.
“This is not about me,” Machado said. “There are thousands of us, millions of us who want to be together, a grieving nation that needs to grieve together. At this point, I’m going to do whatever it takes, talk to whoever I need to, coordinate and serve our nation.”
However, the United States does not appear to support Machado’s return to Venezuela.
Asked about the issue, a State Department spokesperson told CNN in an email Thursday: “The Trump Administration remains fully focused on advancing the response to Venezuela’s devastating earthquake. Our response has been swift and effective. Bringing up sensitive political issues at this time is counterproductive to our efforts to respond to this tragedy.”
Ganzon, of the International Crisis Group, said such statements suggest that the U.S. government does not see Machado’s movement as a viable alternative to governing Venezuela.
“The United States does not believe in Maria Colina Machado’s strategy,” he said. “I don’t believe that she and her allies can manage the current situation. That was true before the earthquake, and even more so now.”
Onel, a professor at Florida International University, added that many Venezuelans believe Rodriguez’s weak response to the earthquake will make the U.S. government reconsider its support for her, but that hasn’t happened.
In his view, this shows that the United States is likely to prioritize stability in Venezuela and continue to support the acting president, at least for the time being, while protecting its economic and oil interests.
“Mr. Delsey knows how to make the government useful to Washington by responding to every request from the United States,” Honor said. “Therefore, the White House is likely to continue supporting her while pushing for limited reforms and cooperation without calling for a full-fledged election or full democratic transition in the near term. For now, a political transition remains elusive.”
