Russia’s decision to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine has now cost the country around 450,000 lives, according to a new study that estimates the total number of casualties from the war has exceeded 2 million.
A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Russia has suffered an estimated 1.4 million casualties, including killed, wounded and missing soldiers, a staggering 1% of the country’s population.
Losses are not evenly spread across Russia, with significantly higher casualty rates in poor regions and ethnic minorities. Stories of the virtual annihilation of the male population of small remote villages are becoming commonplace in Russia’s opposition media. And according to the study, Russia is currently unable to recruit new troops at the same rate as it loses soldiers.
“This rate is alarming,” said study authors Seth G. Jones and Riley McCabe. “Russian casualties in Ukraine are more than four times as many as the U.S. death toll in all wars since World War II combined, and more than nine times as many as the Soviet Union and Russia in all wars since World War II combined.”
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, casualties are estimated at 525,000 to 625,000, including 125,000 to 150,000 dead.
Neither Russia nor Ukraine has released official casualty figures, but CSIS’s latest figures are broadly in line with Western estimates.
Mr. Jones and Mr. McCabe said that in terms of casualties, the war would be far more costly for Russia than for Ukraine. They said the casualty ratio in the first half of this year likely rose to nearly 8:1, meaning there were eight Russian casualties for every Ukrainian soldier killed, wounded or missing.
For most of the war, Russian casualties ranged from two to three for every one Ukrainian casualty. Jones and McCabe said the recent increase is due to advances in Kiev’s drone program, particularly its ability to significantly expand the “kill zone” – the area around the front line that is so saturated with drones that it is nearly impossible for Russian troops to enter.
“Ukraine’s thorough defense strategy has been effective in killing Russian soldiers and limiting Russia’s maneuvers,” the spokesperson said.
But there are other reasons why Russia is suffering so much, they said, including “Russia’s strategy of attrition, failure to effectively conduct joint and combined arms warfare, poor tactics and training, corruption, and low morale.”
Whatever the reason, the data paint a frightening picture. With a total of 2 million casualties, the Ukraine war likely surpassed the Battle of Stalingrad, widely considered to be the bloodiest conflict in history.
