President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the Diplomatic Reception Room at the White House on December 17, 2025 in Washington.
Doug Mills AFP | Getty Images
Trump’s speech comes amid declining approval ratings for the president on inflation and the cost of living, according to the CNBC National Economic Survey of 1,000 U.S. adults conducted in early December.
The poll found that about 66% of those surveyed in December disapproved of President Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living, compared to 62% in October.
With many people feeling the pinch of high prices during the holiday season, here’s what you need to know about your 2026 tax refund.
Many will see ‘bigger refunds’ in 2026
“Many businesses will receive larger refunds than in recent years” if they file their 2025 tax returns in 2026, Erika York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation’s Federal Tax Policy Center, said in an analysis Wednesday.
President Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Bill,” signed into law in July, included several retroactive tax changes for 2025, including expanding the basic tax deduction. More generous maximum child tax credit. Increased limits on state and local tax deductions. $6,000 tax break for seniors. This also includes deductions for car loan interest, tip income, and overtime pay.
The Tax Foundation estimates that these seven provisions will reduce personal income taxes by $144 billion in 2025. However, the IRS did not adjust the withholding schedules that tell employers how much to withhold from workers’ paychecks.
“Most taxpayers will receive the full amount at once when they file their tax return, rather than receiving the tax relief benefit gradually through an increase in their annual take-home pay,” York wrote.
Who can expect a bigger refund?
Experts say your 2026 tax refund may depend on which provisions affect your individual situation.
Higher standard deductions, larger child tax credits, and tax breaks for seniors affect many taxpayers, while other provisions, such as deductions for tips and overtime income, affect smaller groups of filers.
For many, President Trump’s bill was an extension of the tax cuts enacted in 2017, Alex Muresinu, senior policy analyst at the Tax Foundation, previously told CNBC.
“The basic structure will be much the same as the tax code we’ve been accustomed to over the past eight years,” he said.
Piper Sandler’s Oct. 31 memo also predicted an “unusually large tax refund season” with middle- and high-income taxpayers likely to benefit most.
As of Oct. 17, the average refund for individual returns during the 2025 filing season was $3,052, up slightly from $3,004 in 2024, according to the latest IRS data.
