After weeks of delays due to the U.S. government shutdown, investors finally have employment data for October and November. The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, beating the Dow Jones forecast of 45,000. However, it was not all good news on the labor front, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%. In addition, non-farm payrolls (NFP) decreased by 105,000 in October. The report divided investors into two camps. There are those who are concerned about the economic downturn, and those who ignore the economy and look ahead, claiming that the six-week shutdown of government agencies is confusing the statistics. The odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month remained unchanged after the jobs report, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, showing that the likelihood of another rate cut in January remains low. Here’s what some Wall Street investors and strategists are saying: Peter Boockvar, CIO of One Point BFG Wealth Partners: “The bottom line is there’s a lot of turmoil going on here, but rising unemployment and It’s hard to ignore that almost all of the employment growth was due to health and social assistance.However, the focus on establishment surveys and higher-than-expected employment did nothing to increase long-term interest rates.” “All things being equal, this data should be good for the market in the short term (e.g., bad news = good news), but we may have to be careful in wishing for it,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at To Asset Management. “This article alone should not significantly change expectations for the Fed’s rate-cutting path, and it could lead to new downward pressure on risk assets,” said Adam Hetz, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors. “The NFP in October was much lower at -105,000, but as most expected, government salaries were a factor in the lack of business, and private sector salaries remained positive, so the headline concerns for October have faded.” Ryan Weldon, Portfolio Manager at IFM Investors: “Despite the government shutdown obscuring the November jobs report, we see general weakness in the overall U.S. job market. Between layoffs, demographic shifts, and rising labor force participation. The U.S. job market is undergoing a structural adjustment that could take months to unfold.The data is showing weakness, but it won’t be enough to convince the Fed to cut rates again in January as it tries to balance policy’ approach between a weak job market and stubborn inflation. Jerry Tempelman, vice president of fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management: “Today’s report may allay some concerns that the labor market is cooling too quickly…Delays and healthy pockets from self-reporting.” Between the September jobs report that warrants doubts, the near-missing October jobs report, and the downward revision from the previous month, we continue to watch for stability and consistency before agreeing that there was a truly ‘strong’ jobs report.”Goldman Sachs Asset Management Fixed Income. Kay Haig, Global Co-Head of Liquidity Solutions: “Given the data disruption, it is unlikely that the Fed will place much weight on today’s report. Chairman Powell said last week that the report is likely to be affected by distortions related to the government shutdown and will not be a good gauge of the health of the labor market. The report on December employment data, released in early January ahead of the Fed’s next meeting, is likely to be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed in determining its near-term policy trajectory. “The focus is going to be on the CPI going forward,” said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.“We’ve seen some unexpected increases, but a rate cut would be confusing.” “The October and November pay announcements set a somewhat dovish tone for U.S. monetary policy in 2026,” said Jeff Schultz, head of economic and market strategy at ClearBridge Investments. Although overall job creation fell sharply by 105,000 in October due to the impact of the pandemic, job creation in the private sector has been strong over the past two months, giving us a clearer and more positive outlook on the future direction of the labor market. BMO’s Ian Lingen cited concerns about the quality of the data, saying, “Overall, the data catch-up suggests continued stabilization in the labor market, but it is by no means a sharp improvement.” —CNBC’s Yun Lee, Alex Harring, Michelle Fox and John Meloy contributed reporting.
