On July 9, 2024, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the first invocation of the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Evgenia Novogenina | Reuters
New Delhi is set to host President Vladmir Putin’s two-day visit, signaling a determination to deepen ties with Moscow as India reels from punitive US tariffs on purchases of Russian oil.
Ian Bremer, founder and president of political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group, said the visit shows India wants to maintain its relationship with Russia “especially at a time when it can’t trust the United States and views China as an enemy.”
President Putin is scheduled to visit India on December 4 and 5 for the 23rd annual India-Russia summit, which experts believe will see the two countries expand their strategic and commercial ties.
The trip, which was planned before U.S.-India relations soured, “means New Delhi maintains an independent foreign policy that is not subject to the whims of the Trump administration,” said Chietij Vajpayee, senior South Asia fellow in the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House.
The Kremlin said last week that the Russian president and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were scheduled to discuss topics including “the scope of the special and privileged strategic partnership between Russia and India in politics, trade and the economy,” calling Putin’s visit “of great importance.”
The two leaders are expected to issue a joint statement and may sign “a wide range of bilateral sectoral and business agreements,” it added.
Alexei Zakharov, a visiting researcher at the Observer Research Foundation, an Indian think tank, said trade expansion will be the main focus of the summit, which could help India achieve more balanced bilateral trade with Russia.
trade gap
Trade between India and Russia was $68.72 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025, heavily skewed towards Russia, according to data from the government-backed India Brand Equity Foundation. According to the report, India’s exports to Russia were only $4.88 billion, while imports were $63.84 billion. The two countries aim to expand bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030.
Zakharov said India may increase shipments of machinery, chemicals, food and medicine to Russia, while Russia is pitching technological solutions for civilian nuclear energy, including the construction of small modular nuclear reactors in India.
“New Delhi and Moscow are looking to offset India’s decline in Russian oil purchases by diversifying their trade relationship into other areas, such as defense and civil nuclear cooperation,” Chatham House’s Vajpayee said.
According to a report by Bloomberg, the two leaders are likely to discuss India’s purchase of Russia’s next-generation Su-57 fighter jet and the latest S-500 missile defense shield.
But some experts question Russia’s ability to abide by the defense agreement.
“India and Russia will talk about weapons, but Russia is unable to deliver most of the S-400s it has already ordered due to a chip shortage,” Eurasia Group’s Bremer said, adding, “India has no interest in Su-57 fighters.”
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, from 2020 to 2024 Russia was the largest arms supplier to India with a 36% share, followed by France with 33% and Israel with 13%.
However, Russia’s share has declined from 55% in 2015-19 and 72% in 2010-14. SIPRI said in a report in March this year that India is shifting its arms procurement to supplier countries such as France, Israel and the United States.
balancing act
India is under pressure from the United States to cut its imports of Russian oil, which Washington says will allow Russia to withstand the pressure of Western economic sanctions and continue its war against Ukraine.
New Delhi is imposing an additional 25% tax on Russian energy purchases as a “penalty” on top of a 25% tariff on exports to the United States. The US’ 50% tariff on Indian goods, the highest ever imposed on any country, went into effect on August 27th.
The US has accused India of importing Russian oil and reselling it on the open market for “significant profits”, allowing the Russian government to finance its invasion. New Delhi said the oil imports were with the “objective of ensuring energy security for India’s 1.4 billion people”.
Aiming to mend relations with the United States, New Delhi has stepped up its energy purchases from Washington, with India’s state oil company signing a one-year deal to import about 2.2 million tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas a year from the United States.
Russia has also reduced its crude oil purchases from Russia after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.
However, Sumit Litria, principal research analyst at energy intelligence firm Kpler, told CNBC that Russian oil exports to India will decline in the short term but will increase through new intermediaries that can circumvent sanctions.
Arpit Chaturvedi, an advisor on Teneo’s geopolitical risk advisory team, said the lack of a U.S.-India trade deal could mean a loss of $20 billion in revenue for India in trade surpluses, while Russia’s cost advantage from lower oil prices is about $8 billion. “From a financial perspective alone, trade with the United States is much more important for India,” he added.
Putin’s visit to India comes as the United States is trying to broker a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
On Tuesday, President Putin, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner met for five hours in Moscow to discuss ending the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Kremlin reportedly said the talks were constructive but no progress was made.
Vajpayee said India would want a final peace deal because it would help reduce scrutiny on India-Russia relations.
