Presidential Press Secretary Caroline Levitt speaks during the daily press briefing in the Brady Briefing Room at the White House on November 12, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Win McNamee | Getty Images
A senior White House official said Wednesday that a major economic report for October may not be released at all because of the government shutdown.
The spending impasse appears to be nearing an end, with White House press secretary Caroline Leavitt telling reporters that some of the effects could be lasting damage to the government’s ability to collect data.
“Democrats may have caused permanent damage to the federal statistical system by ensuring that the October CPI and employment numbers will likely never be released,” Levitt said. “All published economic data will be permanently damaged, leaving Fed policymakers blindsided at a critical time.”
The release of key economic data is at the forefront of Wall Street’s concerns as the government shutdown continues for more than six weeks, the longest on record.
Among the most important releases are the monthly nonfarm payrolls and consumer price index, both provided by the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Other data affected includes retail sales, import and export data, and consumer spending and income.
Many Wall Street economists expected all the data to be released, albeit with a delay. But Levitt’s comments cast doubt on whether that will happen.
“The Democratic shutdown has made it extremely difficult for economists, investors, and Federal Reserve policymakers to receive critical government data,” Levitt said.
Levitt added that the government shutdown could reduce economic growth by up to 2 percentage points in the fourth quarter. National Economic Council Chairman Kevin Hassett said early in the afternoon that the impasse could reduce GDP this quarter by as much as 1.5 percentage points.
“Certainly we’re going to see an impact this quarter,” Hassett said at the Economic Club in Washington, D.C.
But most economists expect the impact to be minimal.
In fact, Goldman Sachs raised its GDP forecast for the end of the year. The company slightly raised its third-quarter forecast to 3.7%, and raised its full-year forecast to 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point change.
Regarding data collection issues, Goldman economists said they expected the shutdown to have a “limited impact” on the quality of employment data.
As for timing, Citigroup economists estimated Wednesday that the September nonfarm payrolls report could be released as early as Friday, but is more likely early next week. He said it could take until early December to compile October’s tallies.
Geoffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, said it’s easy to collect employment data late because companies have to ask for specific numbers. In fact, he said, the BLS could likely capture several months’ worth of data during a single collection period if needed.
But he said it was difficult to get information from the public because it required asking about work motivation during a period that had already passed.
“The only things that can’t be replicated are more nuanced qualitative studies,” Roach said. “There’s already water under that bridge.”
Roach said previous government shutdowns have mostly resulted in delays in releasing data that the government was already collecting. But he said the shutdown has lasted long enough that government agencies would remain closed during the period these reports would normally be collected.
— CNBC’s Alex Harring contributed.
