Workers dig ore at a tungsten mine operated by Trinity Metals Group in northwestern Kigali, Rwanda, on Friday, May 23, 2025.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
It is well documented that the Iran war is causing price increases and shortages of various items on which Americans depend. Oil and gas, as well as petrochemical products and everything derived from them (such as plastics), and helium are among the raw materials that have been under siege due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, the reopening of the Strait is unlikely to abate the impact of another factor causing prices to soar amid war-induced supply shortages. The vast amount of U.S. munitions used in combat, along with the weapons shipped to Ukraine, has many U.S.-based companies seeking out tungsten.
If you’re not sure if you need tungsten, that’s understandable. While tungsten’s role in weapons is driving the current crisis, its influence extends to the more mundane corners of American life, from the dentist’s chair to the fishing pond. It goes unnoticed by most people, but not by those in the supply chain where it is critical.
“The topic of tungsten comes up in almost every vendor conversation,” said Mark Vena, CEO and Principal Analyst at SmartTech Research. “Tungsten is a metal that no one talks about until missiles, factories and machine shops all need it at the same time,” Vena said, noting that tungsten is tied to combat, manufacturing, electronics, aerospace, electric vehicles and everyday tools. Vena described the current situation as an “ugly knot in the supply chain” and said the tungsten crisis is a reminder that despite advances in AI and technology, the economy remains dependent on the physical material.
As with other rare earth materials situations in recent years, China looms large as a bottleneck in the supply chain. China is a major supplier, controlling as much as 80% of the world’s tungsten, but its production is on the decline. The government cracked down on exports in February 2025, citing national security concerns, and continues to impose strict export controls on the metal.
According to the latest USGS data, global tungsten production will reach approximately 81,000 tons in 2024, making Vietnam the second largest producer after China. The United States produces virtually nothing domestically.
Kazakhstan and a new era of tungsten mining
China’s major role in the market has attracted the attention of policymakers for many years. The U.S. Reshore Act was introduced in 2022 and included a ban on the use of Chinese-made tungsten in military equipment starting in 2026, but it was never passed into law. The Department of Defense will implement new procurement rules that will require new sources of metals.
Among the new tungsten resources being developed is a mining operation being set up in Kazakhstan targeting untapped reserves by Cove Kaz Capital, a portfolio holding company of mining company Cove Capital. “The tungsten industry is facing unprecedented market conditions,” said Pini Althaus, executive chairman of Kove Kaz Capital. “The price hike is due to the decline in world tungsten reserves and short supply as a result of the wars in Ukraine and Iran,” he said.
There is another reason why Cove Kaz Capital is attracting attention. That is, both Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are investors in a company that plans to merge with Kove Kaz Capital.
As China’s tungsten production declines after decades of mining and extraction, it is increasingly buying tungsten concentrate from other countries at high prices to meet its own processing facilities and defense, industrial and energy needs. At the same time, U.S. tungsten demand over the next five to 10 years will require the production of multiple new tungsten mines around the world, Althaus said.
Kazakhstan is just one front in the emerging tungsten war. One of the most aggressive players is Almonti Industriesis a Canadian-based mining company that completed phase one commissioning of its Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea’s Gangwon Province in March, marking the deposit’s return to production for the first time in more than 30 years. The company also operates production mines in Portugal. These will ultimately help alleviate supply issues.
The United States is also attracting Almonti’s attention, CEO Lewis Black said. “Tungsten hasn’t been mined in the United States for 30 years,” Black told CNBC late last year. He said that while developing domestic mines on the scale of some overseas sites would be difficult, pursuing supplies from the United States “makes sense for our customers and our defense business.”
Both the United States and European countries are restocking weapons and ammunition that require tungsten, especially for applications such as armor-piercing munitions. But Althaus said the wars have depleted tungsten stocks, forcing U.S. tungsten smelters to supply plants with a limited mix of scrap, recycled material and concentrate. As defense demand increases, the overall tungsten supply shortage is expected to become even more severe due to war.
“Ultimately, the United States will require continued and scaled-up tungsten supply growth into the 2030s,” Althaus said.
Cove Capital is working on estimates from the market that as much as 20,000 tons per year will be needed in the United States alone, excluding the Defense Stockpile and Project Vault.
The Kove Kaz tungsten project in Kazakhstan is expected to produce 12,000 tonnes per year in full scale. Effective January 1, 2027, Department of Defense acquisition regulations restrict the use of tungsten metal powders and heavy alloys mined, refined, and produced in China.
Kob Kaz’s investment is based on the belief that Kazakhstan’s tungsten reserves have a lifespan that exceeds many political cycles. The project’s two open-pit tungsten reserves are expected to operate for more than 50 years, or, in Althaus’ words, “for the next 10 to 12 years of the U.S. Presidency.”
The planned production represents approximately 15% of the world’s current annual mine production, based on approximately 80,000 tonnes currently produced.
“Our current goal is to complete the engineering studies and construction plans for the mine and refinery and break ground within the next 18 months,” Althaus said, without providing a timeline for when the project would reach full production.
The agreement with Kazakhstan was signed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump. skyline builders group The company was founded in August 2025 and plans to evolve from a traditional Asia-based construction company to a company focused on investing in critical materials supply chains. The company will merge with Cove Kaz Capital on April 30 and will trade as Kaz Resources once the transaction closes in late 2026 or early 2027. The exact size of the investment is unknown.
Lawmakers and watchdog groups are scrutinizing transactions involving members of the president’s family. Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), ranking member of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee, called on the Pentagon’s inspector general to investigate multiple national security-related transactions involving members of the Trump family. So far, the Pentagon has not responded.
A Trump Organization spokesperson said the Trump family was not involved in the merger transaction and has always been a passive investor in Skyline Builders Group and does not have a management role.
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attend the Peace Council during the 56th World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 22, 2026.
Harun Ozalp | Anadolu | Getty Images
The U.S. government is focused on exploring additional tungsten resources and has committed up to $1.6 billion to the Kove Kaz project through the Export-Import Bank and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, including $900 million last November and $700 million in February. The FT, which first reported on the Trump family’s investments related to mining projects, recently reported that Kove Kaz Capital had asked the Pentagon for an additional $400 million.
The government had been laying the groundwork for tungsten investment even before the second Trump administration took office. Korb Kaz noted in the acquisition announcement that the U.S. Departments of Commerce and State have supported efforts to access Kazakhstan’s tungsten resources since 2023, spanning the Biden and Trump administrations. Korb Kaz also mentioned a joint venture between President Trump and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev that includes tungsten mining assets.
Regardless of what happens in Kazakhstan, the tungsten shortage will continue until new supplies can be procured, and that will impact Americans in some way.
“To most consumers, tungsten is invisible, but it feels that way because it underpins the machinery and tools that keep this economy going,” said Evan Mills, a financial analyst at Scholar Advisor, a wealth planning firm that specializes in investing in commodities and metals.
“Right now, the Western world is at war and needs tungsten more than ever, whether it’s for weapons or just basic industrial tools. And it just so happens that the biggest distributors decided to take it out of circulation at that exact moment. That’s the main concern,” Mills said. “There is still a significant supply of this product, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to get it from countries that don’t necessarily want to distribute it.”
Mills said consumers are not buying tungsten directly, so the shortfall won’t show up directly on his company’s balance sheet. “But they’re certainly going to pay the price if construction gets delayed, if construction costs go up, if the operating costs of the machinery behind mining and drilling and manufacturing start to go up,” Mills said, citing drill bits, saws and industrial equipment.
He said few people dwell on these important materials until they become a serious national security threat, adding, “That’s what this is.”
Dr. Elizabeth Sterner, an assistant professor of chemistry at Lebanon Valley University with expertise in polymer chemistry, said there are everyday items that will be affected by the tungsten shortage, such as dental drills. Those involved in dental care will especially appreciate tungsten. “Tungsten carbide is used in the tips of dental drills, increasing the efficiency of the drill and reducing patient discomfort,” Starner said.
And while tungsten may not be directly in smartphones, computers, and cars, it plays a role in making them. Tungsten carbide drills are used to manufacture circuit boards for most electronic devices.
If you cast your line into your favorite fishing hole and get a good catch, thank tungsten. “Tungsten weights are used for fishing because they are less toxic than lead weights,” Sterner says.
“A tungsten shortage could increase prices for all of these products, both due to a shortage of tungsten itself and a shortage of tungsten carbide machining tools to make these products,” she added.
