On March 11, 2026, in Mumbai, India, the Liberian-flagged crude oil tanker Shenron Suezmax successfully navigated the highly dangerous Strait of Hormuz and entered the Port of Mumbai amid the intensifying conflict in West Asia.
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Oil prices soared on Thursday as investors feared a protracted war in the Middle East could cut off tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for weeks.
US West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May contract rose more than 11%, or $11.42, to close at $111.54 per barrel. international benchmark brent crude oil It rose nearly 8% ($7.87) to settle at $109.03.
US President Donald Trump’s comments in a national address on Wednesday night warned of further military aggression against Iran in the next few weeks, dampening hopes for a de-escalation of the impending conflict and sending oil prices higher.
However, prices fell from this high after Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported that Iran was working with Oman to draft a protocol to “monitor transits” through the vital waterway between the two countries.
In his speech, President Trump said the rise in oil prices was due to “the Iranian regime launching outrageous terrorist attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that had no connection to the conflict.”
He said the US would attack Iran “very hard” in the next two to three weeks, but added that the war would not last long, talks with Tehran were “ongoing” and a diplomatic solution was on the table.
“We’re going to finish this job, and we’re going to finish it very quickly,” he said.
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Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs and International Affairs Kazem Ghalibabadi said in a translation of the report by IRNA that tanker traffic could resume on the main sea route if “supervision and coordination” was carried out by both countries.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which once carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows, has been virtually halted since the US-Israel war against Iran began on February 28, sending energy prices soaring in one of the world’s most devastating energy crises.
Giles Alston, a political risk analyst at Oxford Analytica, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday: “It’s becoming increasingly clear that the US position on what the US is doing to move oil out of the Strait of Hormuz and get it through is now something that the US government has pretty much washed its hands of. This is now a problem for the people who are moving oil through the Strait to solve for themselves.”
George Efstathopoulos, a portfolio manager at Fidelity International, told Squawk Box Asia on Thursday that markets were bracing for a “binary outcome” and expected the president to signal either a plan to leave the war or a plan for further escalation and prolonged uncertainty, adding: “Clearly we now appear to be on the latter path.”
President Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday that Iran had called for a ceasefire, briefly raising hopes for more oil tanker movement through the waterway and causing oil prices to fall. Efstathopoulos expects the speech to further fuel risk-off sentiment as investors wait for uncertainty to subside.
Iran’s “new regime president” has asked the US for a ceasefire, but Trump said the request would only be considered if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free and transparent.” “Until then, we will either blow Iran into oblivion or, as the saying goes, return to the Stone Age!!!”
But the Islamic Republic denied Trump’s claims, saying the waterway would not be reopened based on the US leader’s “absurd displays” and that the vital shipping route remained “under the decisive and dominant control of the Revolutionary Guards Navy.”
Since the start of the war, both countries have frequently contradicted each other’s claims regarding the existence and status of peace agreement negotiations. President Trump has also sent conflicting signals, saying negotiations are close to a peace deal, but also saying the U.S. is prepared to send thousands of troops to the region and escalate fighting.
Brent crude oil fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in a week after President Trump said Tuesday night that he expected the U.S. military to wind down operations against Iran in “two to three weeks” and appeared to be declaring victory even without a deal with Iran. “I’ll be leaving soon,” he said.
