The summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could hinge on two key technology flashpoints: critical minerals and market access for US companies.
The long-awaited bilateral talks between the two countries, which were locked in a tariff standoff exactly one year ago, began on Thursday, with warm words exchanged between the two leaders. Discussions will continue until Friday, and will also cover major geopolitical and trade topics between Taiwan and Iran.
But the key debates and potential points of contention are those related to the high-tech sector of the United States and China, including the list of key American executives. Nvidia’s jensen fan Tesla’s Elon Musk and apple’s Tim Cook joins President Trump on a plane.
“What’s at stake is not just one trip or one headline, but the direction of the AI supply chain, the shape of future export controls, and the extent to which U.S. chip leadership can be monetized in China,” Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives said in a note Wednesday.
He added: “The attendance of Mr. Fan, Mr. Musk, Mr. Cook and others shows that technology and trade are among the top priorities going into the U.S. meeting.”
market access
Access for US tech companies to the world’s second-largest economy is a key focus of President Trump, who commented that opening up China to American companies would be his “first demand” of Mr Xi.
President Xi Jinping said on Thursday that China welcomed the deepening of commercial engagement by the United States, saying “the door to China’s opening up to the outside world will be opened even wider.”
The friendly atmosphere marks a sharp change from relations just a year ago, when China became the first major economy to retaliate against President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025.
The rules governing Nvidia’s sales of advanced AI chips to China are a key issue. Shortly after President Trump met with President Xi Jinping on Thursday, Reuters reported that Washington had authorized the sale of Nvidia’s H200 AI chip to several large Chinese technology companies, citing three people familiar with the matter.
“We believe Nvidia is still pressuring the U.S. government to allow it to sell to China,” Morningstar senior equity analyst Brian Colello told CNBC on Thursday. “We believe that NVIDIA may want to negotiate a solution where they can sell some equipment to China and become part of their AI stack.”
But a licensing deal for Nvidia’s H200 chip could be “politically explosive” and spark “a fierce backlash from China hawks” in Congress, Heidi Klebo Rediker, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC.
“One possible outcome is not a full reopening of the Chinese market, but conditional and tightly controlled NVIDIA sales channels, perhaps with safeguards, fees or restrictions,” she added.
Other technology executives are likely looking at the market opportunity as well.
“There’s an all-star list of U.S. tech executives joining Mr. Trump, and their joint goal appears to be the creation of a so-called trade and investment commission with China,” Lauryn Williams, deputy director of the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC, referring to a proposed body to manage trade relations between the two countries.
Kyle Chan, a foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC that Tesla will likely seek full approval for autonomous driving in China. “Apple and meta They may want to do business with Chinese supply chain partners for consumer products. ”
Tesla, Apple and Meta have been contacted for comment.
Klebo-Rediker said that because Apple and Tesla’s exposure to China is through factories, consumers, regulators and competitors, “the benefits from the Great Leap Forward would be greater than from a more benign operating environment.”
important minerals
Another area of potential conflict is China’s overwhelming control over key mineral and rare earth mineral markets. According to the International Energy Agency, Beijing was responsible for 59% of the world’s rare earth mining and 91% of refining in 2024.
“China’s rare earth and magnet export controls have become a powerful source of influence for the Chinese government,” Zhang said.
“Trump may ask Xi to grant general licenses to U.S. commercial users to secure rare earth supplies,” he added. “Even with a licensing agreement, China’s control over rare earths is likely to remain a potential source of influence.”
China’s clampdown on critical and rare earth minerals was a key factor in China’s retaliation against the 2025 US tariffs, with Beijing curbing some exports to the US before the trade ceasefire went into effect.
Paul Triolo, a partner at U.S. advisory firm Albright Stonebridge Group, said the issue of critical rare earth minerals remains “serious,” but a deal could be reached in which the U.S. eases some chip export restrictions in exchange for progress in the field. But he added that the “political atmosphere” in the United States would make that difficult.
Klebo Rediker said the “best outcome” would be an extension of the trade ceasefire in 2025, which would see tariffs between the two countries reduced. However, even under that ceasefire, China’s export restrictions on certain heavy rare earths and magnets were not completely lifted, he added.
“This puts the U.S. administration at a disadvantage,” Klebo Rediker told CNBC. “The United States and its allies cannot out-extract, process, and outspend China fast enough to rebuild resilience in the short term.”
