Trump faces challenges from Cuba to Strait of Hormuz

Energy transport is increasingly being used as a foreign policy tool as the Trump administration seeks to rein in two blockades on opposite sides of the world.

The United States, under the direction of President Donald Trump, has launched a naval blockade targeting Iranian shipping in and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, aiming to put economic pressure on Iran and bring an end to the Middle East crisis.

The move has raised concerns in China, which has long been the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil, with Beijing calling the blockade “irresponsible and dangerous.”

Iran on Friday declared the Strait of Hormuz “fully open” to all commercial traffic following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

At the same time, the United States has imposed a de facto fuel blockade on Cuba and threatened to impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to the communist-run Caribbean island.

Russia has already broken through the U.S. blockade and shipped 100,000 tons of crude oil to the fuel-starved country, and has pledged to continue supplying Cuba with vital oil.

Sanctions experts and analysts say both blockades raise questions about the Trump administration’s willingness to challenge maritime authorities, especially ahead of next month’s summit between the U.S. president and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Brett Erickson, a sanctions expert and managing principal at Obsidian Risk Advisors, said it was very likely that a second Russian oil tanker would arrive in Cuba in the coming weeks, highlighting the White House’s own contradictions.

“When the Anatoly Kolodkin entered the Matanzas oil terminal, it was in direct violation of U.S. sanctions. GL-134 had already been amended to GL-134A, which explicitly excluded extradition to Cuba. The U.S. government simply chose not to enforce it,” Erickson told CNBC via email.

“President Trump then publicly stated that he did not care whether Russia handed them over to Cuba or not. Having made that statement and refused to even intercept or harass the first ship, the movement against the second ship is now politically unsustainable.”

CNBC has reached out to the White House press secretary for comment and is awaiting a response.

The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which began on Monday, marked a sharp escalation in the conflict despite a moratorium on hostilities agreed on April 7.

But President Trump suggested Thursday that the Iran war could end “pretty quickly.” He also touted that a second round of face-to-face negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials “will likely take place at the end of next week.”

When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, Ericsson said the more dangerous escalation scenario here does not involve Russian shadow fleet tankers, but rather Chinese-flagged vessels with ties to China or carrying Iranian oil.

He noted that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States would not renew the temporary general license granted by the White House for Russian and Iranian offshore oil sales during the Iran war. The license is scheduled to expire at 12:01 a.m. Sunday.

Ericsson said that from that moment on, the overwhelming buyers of exportable Iranian crude oil will once again be Chinese refineries.

“From a purely national politics standpoint, the logical move for Iran would be to try a blockade of Chinese-linked or flagged tankers. This would put the US government in an extremely dangerous position. Interdicting or boarding a Chinese-flagged ship weeks before the Xi-Trump meeting would be an order of magnitude escalation. Being forced to sink the ship would be unthinkable,” he added.

China has supported the Tehran regime for many years, but has harshly criticized the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Foreign Ministry said earlier this week that the blockade and expanded military deployment targeting one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints risked undermining an “already fragile ceasefire situation”.

“The United States, while enforcing an undeclared blockade of Cuba, allowed Russian oil tankers to reach the island last month, clearly because President Trump did not want a confrontation with Russia,” said Max Boot, a foreign policy analyst and senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, in an online article published Tuesday.

“Are we now prepared to risk a confrontation with China if the U.S. Navy halts oil shipments to China, just as we are preparing for a summit with Xi Jinping?” he added.

The White House has announced that the long-awaited meeting with China’s Mr. Xi will be held in Beijing on May 14th and 15th.

—CNBC’s Hugh Leask contributed to this report.