According to Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, the government’s closure is unlikely to derail the stock market momentum at the end of the year. Lee believes the suspension of economic data releases from federal agencies is a “sidebar issue,” adding that past closures have not had a permanent impact on stocks. The widely-held strategist who won the 2025 Bull Run as the best ever stock, expects the S&P 500 to reach at least 7,000 by December with more profitable potential. “I’m sure he’s not bearish because of the shutdown,” Lee wrote in a note to his client on Thursday. “If the stock is declining, we become buyers. This is something we should be concerned about as we may hear the disastrous warning of disaster due to the shutdown.” The S&P 500 has skyrocketed almost 40% since its April low, returning to its high, raising its 2025 profit to 14%. The equity benchmark should rise by around 4% to reach 7,000 from the end of 6,711.20 on Wednesday. .spx ytd mountain s&p 500 Many Wall Street believe the length of government closures is important as long outages than governments can put pressure on the already fragile economy and put pressure on stock markets near record highs. Still, Lee pointed out seasonal strength from here as the main driver of stocks. He said since 1950, the S&P 500 recorded a median of 4.9%, a quarter, with a victory rate of 81%. Lee also highlighted the similarities between 1998 and 2024. This is because the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, and the index rose by an average of 13.8% in the last three months of the year. Repeating that pattern means movement to 7,750. “The benefits are high given the strong seasonal tails are ongoing and the Fed is breaking,” he said. Lee advised against moving the defense in response to the closure, but said gold and Bitcoin remain attractive holdings.
