The pro-European party’s victory in Moldova’s parliamentary elections was a test of litmus in millions of Soviet countries to prevent Russian interference and disinformation campaigns from participating in the European mainstream.
Government action and solidarity (PAS) easily defeated the challenges of the patriotic Russian bloc. The winning margin was much lower four years ago, but PAS still scored just 50%, more than 50% of the vote.
Two years ago, the PAS victory appeared to be far less likely amid the widespread protest against higher energy prices and other bread and butter issues. However, Sunday’s victory brought some takeaways across Europe.
The stakes were expensive. Just before the election, the European Council on Foreign Relations called the vote a stress test for European resilience. “Political parties or blocs associated with the empowered Kremlin will create direct security risks on Ukraine’s southwest border and provide a central base where Russia can operate against EU countries,” he said.
Poland, Germany and France said in a joint statement on Monday that “there was unprecedented interference by Russia, including a voting purchase scheme and disinformation.”
Speaking to the people of Moldovan and President Maia Sandou, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tass said in X: “You also stopped Russia in an attempt to control the entire region.
The lesson: the impact of the EU’s economic support when US interests fade, and extensive cooperation with Moldova on a disinformation campaign to aid Russia.
Over the past few years, Europe and the US have funded governments as they faced protests over energy tariffs, inflation and recession.
In 2023, USAID announced $300 million in support to improve Moldova’s energy security, facing what the US embassy calls “a long-standing attempt by the Kremlin to weaponize energy to undermine Moldova’s independence.”
But the Trump administration’s cuts to USAID funding essentially frozen nearly $500 million in aid, and Europe picked up the tricks it made. According to Brussels, Moldova is expected to receive more than $2 billion in assistance from the EU between 2025 and 2027.
Timing is also important, with the European government behind the polls amid rising poll levels and a sharp decline in Moldova’s GDP.
Furthermore, with European support, Moldovan authorities are running a robust campaign against Russian influence.
This year, the EU deployed what is called the Hybrid Rapid Response Team to support Moldova against foreign interference, giving the government access to the EU cybersecurity reserve. It also created a regional hub for the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) to focus on Russian disinformation in Moldova and elsewhere.
In June, the EU gathered representatives from Google, Meta and Tiktok together with Moldovan officials and civil society groups to identify the disinformation campaign. Moldova’s security services have since identified fake profiles generated by AI spreading propaganda coordinated to Facebook, Telegram and Tiktok.
Telegram founder Pavel Durov said over the weekend, “Last year, the French intelligence agency contacted me through an intermediary and asked me to help the Moldovan government censor specific telegram channels ahead of the Moldova presidential election.”
He said in return, “The French Intelligence Agency said that the judge who ordered my arrest had told me he would say “good things” about me.
The French Foreign Ministry replied on Monday, “I like to indict accusations while elections are underway. Moldova after Romania.”
The Moldovan government is also opposed to pro-Russian groups. Two years ago, the pro-Russian party led by Iranian Scholl was banned. Shor is a businessman with ties to Russia, accused of stealing billions of dollars from Moldovan Banks in 2014. He was convicted of fraud but denied any misconduct.
Last week, authorities detained more than 70 people and seized passports, cash and weapons in connection with a plot that allegedly caused anxiety. The investigation included around 250 attacks nationwide, led by the office of special prosecutors with close ties to European institutions.
EU expansion commissioner Malta Kos said the Moldovan government has been “proven to be resilient and capable of fighting back against the forces it hopes to leave the European path.”
The Kremlin accused Moldovan authorities of restraining opposition support on Monday, claiming that there were too few polling stations in Moldovan, which live in Russia.
“This is not about Russia trying to affect anyone. It’s about complaints about how much of Moldova’s population is not given the right to vote in elections,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week.
Voting in the Break-Away Moldova region of Transnistria, where Russian troops are based in more than 1,000 people, was hampered when the Election Commission closed four polling stations due to “potential destabilization” and threats. Opposition parties on Monday claimed that at least 200,000 people were prevented from voting.
The PAS victory rarely halts Russian influence operations.
Two years ago, CNN reported on a secret plan created by the FSB, a Russian security service. FSB has laid out detailed options to make Moldova unstable.
The document sets a decade-long strategy to bring Moldova within the scope of Russian influence and appears to have been written in 2021 by the FSB’s transnational cooperation agency.
They set goals such as “opposition to Romania’s expansionist policy,” Moldovan neighbors, opposition to the Moldovan association with NATO, and Moldova’s “creation of stable, Russian, influential groups.”
However, this election shows that Moldova has a strong current towards a retreat to Russia’s orbit. There was a high vote among Moldovan Diaspora (about a third of eligible voters). They may be much more European-European than the elderly poor portion of the home population.
Young Moldovan is also more pro-European, as evidenced in the way that was revealed in last year’s referendum on whether Moldova should pursue membership in the EU accusations.
Another former Soviet republic, like neighbouring Ukraine and Georgia, continues the struggle between Russian steel embraces and the near future of Europe.
