JPMorgan says MGM Resorts International is likely to emerge as tourism on the Las Vegas Strip soars. The investment bank upgraded MGM from neutral to overweight on Wednesday and raised its 12-month price target for the casino operator to $46 from $41, implying a 10% upside from its previous closing price. “Our more favorable view of MGM reflects our growing confidence that MGM’s LV Strip EBITDAR expectations have bottomed out and growth should improve in coming months on the back of easier comparability and the resilience of U.S. leisure travellers,” analyst Daniel Politzer said in a 33-page note to clients. MGM stock rose 9% on Wednesday following the upgrade, bringing its gain over the past 12 months to 31%. MGM 5D Mountain MGM stock soared 9% on Wednesday. The reassessment comes as visitor numbers to Sin City remain relatively stable in 2026, despite concerns that soaring fuel prices related to the Iran war could limit travel to the gaming and entertainment hub. As of the end of April, Las Vegas was expected to welcome about 9.7 million tourists by 2026, roughly in line with the previous year’s tourism trends, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Bureau. JPMorgan said tourist traffic has remained strong in the desert city, thanks to drive-in visits and value-oriented promotions at casino hotels along the Strip. “There is no shortage of undervalued gaming stocks, but MGM is one of the few whose stock has the potential to rise further,” according to the company’s website. MGM operates 12 hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, including the Aria, Bellagio and MGM Grand. JPMorgan’s Mr. Politzer said in a separate note to clients on May 27 that these and other properties could see more business after Hard Rock Las Vegas opens in late 2027. “While the strip’s ability to absorb incremental supply at any given time depends on multiple factors (LV strip health, concurrent openings, macros, etc.), historically the impact on existing real estate has been neutral or slightly positive,” Politzer wrote in a note. In an analysis of the 20 resorts and casinos that have opened in Las Vegas, JPMorgan found that visitor numbers across the market increased by an average of 6% year over year following the opening of major new properties. According to the same analysis, industry room revenue increased by an average of 11%, while total gaming revenue increased by 8%. JPMorgan’s recommendation for MGM goes against the Wall Street consensus, where 12 out of 27 analysts rate the stock only as a hold, and three rate it as a sell.
