As negotiations between the U.S. and Iran move toward a possible deal, Tehran has increasingly signaled that a return to war will look very different than the last time.
U.S. officials said Thursday that talks between Iran and the United States have reached a tentative agreement and are awaiting approval from President Donald Trump. But even as negotiators reported progress, the military standoff showed little sign of abating. The US launched a second attack on Iran within days of this week, and skirmishes continued in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday night.
Iranian officials have used the negotiations to project confidence that they retain important military options even if diplomacy fails. The Revolutionary Guards said a new conflict could spread “far beyond the region” and inflict “devastating blows” on hostile forces in “unimaginable” locations.
The warning came after a war in which Iran effectively cut off shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and targeted U.S. military bases, Israeli cities and critical infrastructure in Gulf Arab states, while causing a global energy shock.
Last week, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that future retaliation would come with “many more surprises,” while threatening to use “new means” and open “new fronts” by the Iranian military. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the military had used the ceasefire period to rebuild its capabilities at the “highest level”.
Experts say much of the rhetoric is aimed at deterring further attacks. But they also warn that the Iranian government remains open to significant escalation options if diplomacy breaks down.
If war resumes, Iran could take the following actions:
Unable to defeat the United States or Israel through conventional military means, Iran has sought deterrence by inflicting global economic pain through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint. Emboldened by its success, Tehran may now seek to destroy another important maritime corridor.
By activating its regional proxy, Yemen’s Houthis, Iran could engineer the closure of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, cutting off another vital artery connecting the main trade route between Europe, Asia, and the Arab world. Such a move would further exacerbate global economic pressures.
In 2023, more than 10% of the world’s seaborne oil trade will pass through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. After the Houthis triggered maritime unrest near Yemen in 2024, that share nearly halved for oil and fell to almost zero for liquefied natural gas, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
“A simultaneous crisis in Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz could be much more severe, impacting both Red Sea trade and Persian Gulf energy flows, and would increase oil prices, freight rates, and inflationary pressures around the world,” Umud Shokri, an energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University, told CNN.
In recent years, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime navigation near Bab al-Mandeb by attacking, seizing and sinking ships passing through the area. But creating a blockade similar to the Strait of Hormuz would be “much more difficult,” Shokri said.
“Bab al-Mandeb is not directly controlled by Iran, and continued closure would likely provoke a strong international naval response,” Shokri said. “A more realistic scenario is not a complete physical closure, but a prolonged security crisis and the risks and costs for commercial shipping become too high.”
If President Trump acts on his threat to target Iranian refineries, infrastructure, and power plants, Iran could seek to expand its war across the Arab world, strike in sensitive locations, spark global economic panic, and further damage its neighbors’ reputations as safe havens for international business and reliable guarantors of global energy flows.
Ahmad Bakshaesh al-Destani, a member of Iran’s National Security Council, said if the United States targeted Iranian oil facilities, Iran would retaliate by attacking oil wells in Gulf Arab states. This is a significant escalation from a 40-day war in which Iran primarily targeted refineries and pipelines.
“If they try to do something to get rid of their oil, we will not attack their pipelines. We will attack their wells and make them run out of oil too, making fuel expensive for the world,” he said, according to Iranian media.
Even after the cease-fire took effect on April 8, Iranian proxies in Iraq were blamed by the UAE for an attack on a nuclear power plant in Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia was also targeted by drones from Iraq.
During the war, Iran fired missiles at civilian targets such as hotels and airports, but it rarely fired projectiles at critical desalination plants that provide fresh water to millions of people in the region.
There were also no reports that Iran targeted schools or universities, despite issuing evacuation warnings for U.S. educational facilities in the region.
Despite all the rhetoric, Graevski downplayed the threat of an Iranian “surprise” attack, noting that Iran’s weaponry is well known.
“It does have a range of over 2,000 kilometers (about 1,200 miles), but it is not a new weapon.”
Earlier this month, a Telegram page linked to the IRGC posted satellite photos purporting to show US military aircraft parked at Chania Airport on the Greek island of Crete.
CNN could not confirm the authenticity of the images, but the Revolutionary Guards have threatened to expand their targeting “beyond the region” if Iran is attacked again, making the possibility of retaliation far more remote.
During its 40-day war with the United States and Israel, Iran has demonstrated its ability to launch ballistic missiles into areas previously thought to be out of reach.
In March, Iran is believed to have fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, a joint U.S.-British military base in the Indian Ocean 3,000 miles from Iran, in what is believed to be the first attempt to target the base.
Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said that if an emboldened Iranian government were to decide to surprise Europe with long-range missiles, targets could include the U.K.’s main U.S.-operated air bases, RAF Fairford and RAF Lakenheath, or Germany’s Ramstein logistics and communications hub.
“But Iran will likely hold that possibility to the highest level of escalation,” he said. During the war, Iran is also believed to have attempted to target British military facilities as far as Cyprus.
“I don’t think the Mediterranean is completely beyond their capabilities,” Nicole Grajewski, an assistant professor at the Center for International Studies at the Polytechnic Institute in Paris, told CNN. “The issue here is accuracy.”
Drones, supersonic cruise missiles, and satellite jamming
To improve its chances of hitting targets, Nadimi said Iran could launch swarms of more sophisticated and coordinated AI-powered drones equipped with cameras that can communicate with each other and adjust their flight paths and speeds to evade jamming and air defenses.
“They have not demonstrated these capabilities yet, but we have discussed developing this technology in the past,” Nadimi said.
Tehran may also seek to improve its cruise missile capabilities by modifying existing systems to reach supersonic speeds and evade interception, as well as attempt to jam military communications and surveillance satellites, he added.
