budapest, hungary —
Viktor Orbán’s defeat means Hungary will see a change of government for the first time since 2010.
Opinion polls suggested a decisive victory for the opposition Tisza party, but many of its supporters refused to imagine what a victory would look like. After 16 years of rule by Mr. Orbán’s illiberal Fidesz party, some wondered whether an alternative to Mr. Orbán was possible, as the competitive electoral landscape tilted heavily toward his opponents.
So when Orbán conceded defeat to his opponent, Péter Magyar, it felt to some like a change of government. Writer and poet András Petos said the feeling reminded him of being in Budapest during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“I was 30 years old when the communist regime ended. I feel the same way. It’s the same,” he told CNN from the banks of the Danube River, where thousands of Fidesz supporters had gathered to hear the results.
“Together we replaced Orbán’s government. Together we liberated Hungary. We took our country back,” Magyar, the next prime minister, told the crowd.
Much remains unclear, from the size of Mr. Tisza’s majority in parliament to how he will begin dismantling the system built by Mr. Fidesz, but Mr. Orbán’s defeat signaled a populist impasse. His defeat offers a lesson for those who seek to emulate him and those who rejoice in his death.
The first lesson is that nationalism is difficult to internationalize. Mr. Orbán’s campaign, which has long ruled as a defender of national sovereignty and vowed to protect Hungary from perceived threats from the European Union and liberal ideology, ultimately relied heavily on support from powerful international backers such as the United States and Russia.
Vice President J.D. Vance, who was dispatched to Budapest last week to support the Trump administration’s closest allies in Europe, said he was ready to support Orban “in any way possible.” President Donald Trump went even further. “Let’s go out and vote for Viktor Orbán,” he shouted at Truth Social. “He is a true friend, fighter and winner.”
The Trump administration’s proposal did not work. Some Hungarians who packed a Budapest event hall to hear Vance speak on Tuesday were no doubt flattered by the superpower’s attention and grateful to their prime minister for winning it, but there is something contradictory about imagining that people will vote for a nationalist politician just because a foreign power tells them to.
Ahead of Orban’s defeat, Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev, who has known him since the 1990s, told CNN: “The irony is that if he loses, he will lose like a globalist.” In addressing powerful friends abroad, Mr. Orbán “has done everything we would want from strong internationalist political leaders.”
One of the reasons why Orbán’s campaign focused on foreign policy was because his domestic performance was so poor. This is also the lesson of his defeat. Populism is about winning the day, the week, and the news cycle. This combat-secondary form of government requires a steady stream of enemies to work. Mr. Orbán discovered NGOs, liberal universities, George Soros, the LGBTQ movement, the European Union, and many others.
However, eventually you will run out of dragons to defeat. Much of Mr. Orban’s campaign campaign denigrated neighboring Ukraine. A poster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been put up in Budapest. Some have the words “Dangerous!” written on them. One read: “Don’t let him have the last laugh.”
In the absence of a prosperous economy, improved health care system or other policy achievements to point to, Mr. Orbán’s campaign instead sought to intimidate Hungarians into voting for Fidesz by presenting it as a “safe choice” to protect Hungary from the threat allegedly posed by Ukraine. “He always talks about sovereignty, but I can’t believe that serious threats to Hungarian sovereignty in Ukraine have become ridiculous,” Krastev said.
To counter Orbán’s vague warnings about danger from abroad, Magyar had no choice but to point to his domestic performance, which left Hungarians unimpressed.
For those seeking to topple populists, Mr. Orbán’s defeat also holds lessons. Despite his landslide victory, many left-wing and liberal Hungarians are less than enthusiastic about Magyar, a former Fidesz insider who still holds deeply conservative positions.
Nevertheless, the Hungarian people rallied behind the Magyars, correctly deciding that he was their best chance of defeating Orbán in the elections. Political scientist Péter Kleko, who runs the Budapest think tank Political Capital, told CNN that Hungary’s more liberal voters won’t let the perfect become the enemy of the good.
In his victory speech opposite the Hungarian parliament, Magyar told supporters he was clear about the challenges ahead. He called on Orban to act as a “caretaker” and not interfere with the work of the next government.
But for his supporters, the question of whether Mr. Tisza could break away from the Orbanist model and effectively govern seemed to be an overnight question.
“It would be a welcome twist if Hungary were to move from the illiberal, post-truth, authoritarian model in the West to a model of democratic change,” Kleko said. we will see.
