Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing entitled “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress” at the Dirksen Building on July 15, 2026.
Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call Inc. | Getty Images
June’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting ended with a very brief statement from the Fed, with Chairman Kevin Warsh offering no outlook on the outlook for interest rates. He is likely to continue his tight-lipped approach this week, with traders on Kalsi pointing to possible words from the recently installed central bank leader.
According to the event contract, which asks what Mr. Warsh will say at his next press conference, the Fed chief has a more than 50% chance of mentioning the word “shock” and a 74% chance of saying “oil.” The event deal was one of the main mention markets on the platform as of Monday afternoon, and will be resolved based on Warsh’s remarks at a press conference scheduled for Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This week’s Fed meeting, along with a deal on what Warsh will say this week, will take place after Iran and the United States cease fighting. Last week, the two countries exchanged attacks and briefly put pressure on It exceeded $100 per barrel. The outage erased gains in oil prices, with Brent crude trading below $89 on Monday.
Kalsi traders said Warsh was likely to mention energy supply shocks, but Bank of America said on Monday it was “textbook policy” for the central bank to avoid responding.
The Fed is largely expected to keep its overnight benchmark interest rate unchanged, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Given the simple path of raising interest rates in September if necessary, it would be strange to (raise rates) immediately after the inflation situation improved in June,” Evercore ISI said.
“However, given Mr. Warsh’s refusal to outline his strategy and the renewed conflict between the US and Iran, which has reignited the energy shock and pushed yields higher, the odds cannot be set too low,” it added. One Calsi contract, which asked traders what the Fed’s July decision would be, predicted a nearly 75% chance the Fed would keep interest rates at current levels.
The probability of a rate hike this week rose to about 38% from 16% last week, according to FedWatch. Similarly, another Calsi contract asking when the next Fed rate hike will be shows a 68% chance of a rate hike before the end of the year. All calci contracts with respect to potential interest rates are verified by the Federal Reserve Board.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
