On March 11, 2026, the Humber refinery operated by Phillips 66 and piping at the Humber Estuary near South Killingholm in north-east England.
Oli Scarfe AFP | Getty Images
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dispatch
If the UK should have learned a lesson from the pandemic and the subsequent Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is the importance of security of supply, whether for food, energy, fertilizer or other goods.
The Middle East crisis suggests otherwise.
Low supply chain resilience can quickly lead to shortages of refined petroleum products, especially diesel fuel and jet fuel (kerosene).
This is partly due to a significant decline in refining capacity. In the 1970s, Britain had as many as 18 refineries, but that number has declined sharply, faster than in countries such as France and Germany.
According to the House of Commons Library, UK refinery output fell by 41% between 2000 and 2024, with the two largest local oil majors, BP and Shell, exiting the market by 2011.
These closures reflect a variety of factors, including poor returns on investment, lack of government support for refinery upgrades, and rising carbon and energy costs. The relative small size of UK refineries (larger refineries benefiting from economies of scale are more competitive), as well as lower demand for some products and the uptake of electric vehicles as the UK pushes more aggressively towards net zero, also played a role.
Following the closure last year of the Plax Lindsay refinery in Lincolnshire and the Petroineo refinery in Grangemouth, Scotland, there are now only four refineries in the UK: Exxon Mobil’s Foley refinery in Hampshire; Managed by Phillips 66, Humber, Lincolnshire. Pembroke in south Wales is operated by Valero Energy and Stanlough in Cheshire is operated by Essar.
This quartet supplies around 85% of the UK market’s needs. Britain remains self-sufficient in some products, particularly petrol. It is one of only 16 OECD countries to enjoy oil self-sufficiency, even though it is a net importer of the crude oil needed to produce oil.
However, this is not the case for kerosene and diesel, for which the UK is a net importer.
In 2024, the UK imported 3.1 times more kerosene than it produced, and 2.5 times more diesel (it was self-sufficient until 2011), according to downstream industry trade body British Fuel Industry. Dependence on imported kerosene has long been established but has increased due to refinery closures.
At the beginning of this century, more than four-fifths of kerosene was sourced domestically.
kerosene problem
The sources of these imports have changed in recent years. Before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia provided around a fifth of the UK’s diesel supplies, but now 58% of diesel imports come from the US and Netherlands.
Another problem is kerosene. Thanks to Heathrow Airport, a major international aviation hub, the UK will be second only to the US among OECD countries in jet fuel demand in 2024, according to the government. Around 60% of the UK’s heating oil imports come from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait (38% from the latter alone), which is why the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is so important.
To make matters worse, Britain’s kerosene stockpiles are much smaller than most other countries in the world, with just one month’s supply.
The crisis has created a rich rift among government critics. The Scottish National Party, for example, has accused Westminster of allowing Grangemouth, which supplied all of Scotland’s heating oil, to close.
Ministers insist that kerosene supplies from the Dutch and Belgian capital Antwerp will remain uninterrupted and there is no risk of rationing, as some Asian countries already do.
But with European heating oil prices doubling, airfares are likely to rise this summer as airlines cut capacity.
On the bright side, if more people are forced to holiday at home this summer, it could at least be an opportunity for Britain’s struggling hospitality industry.
need to know
French President Macron confirms ‘multilateral’ talks in Strait of Hormuz, UK ‘does not support’ US blockade of Iran
Britain was one of the first countries to declare it would not get involved in the Iranian port blockade.
Why pressure is mounting on oil giant BP ahead of its annual general meeting
BP is bracing for a possible shareholder revolt at its annual general meeting.
OpenAI announces first permanent London office after UK Stargate project cancellation
In February, the company announced plans to make London its largest research base outside the United States.
— Holly Ellyatt
Coming soon
April 16th: UK GDP for February
April 21: UK unemployment rate for February
April 22: UK inflation rate for March
