Bitcoin’s pullback below $100,000 has shaken up one of the world’s most momentum-driven trades, raising questions about whether the decline is just a clean sweep or the start of something deeper. Bitcoin fell below $95,000 on Friday, erasing almost all of its gains so far this year. The cryptocurrency achieved some amazing milestones in 2025. It rose to an all-time high of over $126,000 on October 6, but fell just a few days later. The stock is now trading at $95,049, down about 25% from its October high on signs of a deepening bear market. Industry experts say there are two stages to the economic downturn. In other words, there will be a macro-driven decline first, followed by forced liquidations. However, long-term investors argue that the fundamentals of the digital asset’s story are still in place. Some investors still see Bitcoin as a hedge against currency depreciation, inflation and long-term monetary expansion. BTC.CM= YTD Year-to-date Bitcoin price peak Alessio Quarini, CEO of digital asset solutions firm Hex Trust, said the tipping point occurred on October 10, when the flare-up of trade tensions between the US and China triggered an immediate decline in broad-based risk assets. In the days that followed, a “complete liquidation cascade wiped out billions of leveraged positions.” “This is a liquidity reset, not a loss of confidence in assets,” he said. Beyond Bitcoin, the broader cryptocurrency complex is also under pressure. Ether, the second most popular cryptocurrency, has fallen more than 35% from its August high of $4,954. Although tensions between the two economic powerhouses have since eased, the Bitcoin market has struggled to find its footing. “The thin liquidity since the Oct. 10 crash and the fear that the four-year cycle is coming to an end are the main reasons…Even small, everyday trades can cause price fluctuations,” said Peter Chan, head of research at Presto Research. Macro headwinds are also beginning to pile up. Expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in December are fading, and the suspension of economic data releases due to the US government shutdown has also worsened sentiment. Tim Sun, senior researcher at digital asset financial services firm Hashkey, said ETFs have been particularly hard hit due to the tightening of monetary policy. “Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $100 billion immediately after approval, but institutional inflows have slowed significantly due to the macro liquidity squeeze,” he said. In fact, that capital is now being withdrawn, Sun said. Will there be any further rejections? Few expect the rebound to reverse any time soon. “Honestly, this correction may not be over yet. If the stock reverses, it could easily retest the low $70,000s, and maybe even briefly below,” Quarini said. Geoff May, chief operating officer of crypto exchange platform BTSE, agreed that further declines could continue, adding that Bitcoin continues to behave like a typical risk-on asset and that with AI valuations under scrutiny and interest rate cuts suspected, “further price declines could be justified.” However, market watchers stress that this reset looks very different from past crises. “This is not 2022. There is no trust contagion, no cascading bankruptcies, no system failure,” Quarini said. “If the situation stabilizes…we expect Bitcoin to reach new highs over a 12-18 month period.” Chun said retail investors should avoid trying to time short-term fluctuations, but suggested dollar-cost averaging or buying small amounts over time, similar to a systematic investment plan, and should focus on understanding the underlying Bitcoin and Ethereum networks rather than trading headlines. Sun added that long-term buyers should wait for macro signals rather than technical signals. He said Bitcoin’s upside depends on a sustained easing in global liquidity. Meanwhile, Hunter Horsley, CEO of asset management firm Bitwise, sees current levels as potentially attractive for strategic investors. “The way we look at the price right now is that it’s a reasonable entry point…The setup is certainly very constructive,” he said, noting that Bitwise has had more customers investing in cryptocurrencies in the past quarter alone than ever before in the company’s seven-year history.
