(These are market notes on today’s action by CNBC senior market commentator Mike Santoli. Check out today’s video update from the microphone above.) A solid finish for the stock week minimizes the S&P 500’s days of pull-in. Technical overconditions, unfriendly seasonal patterns, sales responses to flashy AI/chip news, Treasury yield conflicts – this week it was under 0.30%, only 0.30% from its September 22nd record, and not even a 3% DIP since May. The independent rotational action and hair trigger Dipview Reflex supports this resilience, providing data that is mostly expected to provide coverage but peace of mind when some personal income, expenditures and PCE inflation data are expected to provide coverage. The equal weighted S&P is also dead for a week. Actions are not without scars. Megatechnology leaders are unreliable, local banks are stepping back, and previously strong groups such as travel stocks are tired. Still, the constant passing of the baton from one magazine 7 name to another (one day Tesla, another apple) holds tape on the rails. The slight advantages of core PCE on personal income and spending and targets leave without compromising the core macro premise at this stage of the bull market. As long as the bond market doesn’t rebel and the Fed doesn’t suffocate growth, the stock market is always ok with nominal GDP of 5% (2% rial, 3% inflation). So far, the Ministry of Finance has been benign measurements of less than 4.2%, from 10 years ago. Floss is skimmed from some areas (cryptometric, quantum, recent IPOs), but it’s not enough to notice a year-long chart. Investor sentiment is content and optimism without appearing to lean towards a dangerous attack. AAII’s retail investor survey shows only slightly more bulls than bears. A 3-day small loss and a faint hawk Fed speech dropped CNN’s fear/greed index from greed to neutral. This does not mean that there are no seasonal concerns for the stock or presenting a sweet risk/reward setup. Quarter-end rebalances have come to the market, they have high ratings and credit spreads are already very low, so perhaps you can’t expect anything more. It has begun to acquire Splashy High S&P 500 targets next year from several strategists. Still, this week, it’s the uneasy bear who is likely to be frustrated by a worry-free bull despite S&P’s slim loss.
