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The probability that gas prices will exceed $4 a gallon by the end of this month has increased from 56% in Calci to 90% in the past two days.
Kalsi traders currently see a 93% chance that gas prices will rise above $4 a gallon and a 63% chance that they will rise above $4.10. The contract, which asks what U.S. gas prices will be this month, will be reviewed by AAA.
National gas prices on Wednesday were $3.89, about 3 cents higher than Tuesday, according to AAA.
Last month’s average was over $4, but this year’s highest U.S. gas price average was $4.56 on May 21st. Kalsi traders believe it is highly unlikely that gas prices will rise above $4.50 again by the end of this month, with a probability of less than 5%.
Gasoline price speculation comes after the US ended a ceasefire with Iran last week and resumed attacks. U.S. Central Command wrote on the X Post that it launched a second wave of attacks on Iran at 3pm ET on Wednesday afternoon. This follows a strike held on Wednesday morning.
“This attack is aimed at further diminishing the military capabilities that Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” U.S. Central Command wrote in an X-Post on Wednesday morning.
Crude oil prices have been rising for three consecutive days. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for August closed on Wednesday at $79.60 a barrel, up 26 cents, or 0.3%, from the previous day. Meanwhile, international benchmark Brent crude oil futures for September settled at $84.95 per barrel, also up 0.3% on the day.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
