After a tough few days for AI trading, Wall Street enters another holiday-shortened week. The health of the labor market will be a major focus for investors. Our portfolio has a make-or-break earnings report that determines whether or not to keep the stock. Markets will also grapple with escalating violence in the Middle East, even as the United States and Iran agreed to a 60-day ceasefire as they negotiate a more permanent end to the four-month conflict. The weekend gains came as tanker traffic through the crucial Strait of Hormuz increased last week, leading to a further decline in oil prices. On Friday, U.S. benchmark WTI crude oil prices fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since the war began on February 28. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil, the international oil standard, fell 22% in June, its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic began. A dramatic drop in oil prices as the Strait reopened helped ease concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to raise rates multiple times this year to rein in inflation. For investors, the question heading into the trading week is whether there will be an impact, first from Thursday’s attack by Iran, followed by retaliatory strikes by the United States. Actions – Affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. On Sunday morning, President Donald Trump threatened to annihilate Iran on social media. Here’s a closer look at what to expect from upcoming economic data and Nike’s earnings report. 1. Economic Update: Aside from additional Iran-related developments, this week’s major macroeconomic reports are divided into employment and manufacturing. On the employment front, May’s JOLTS will be released on Tuesday, followed by payroll company ADP’s private payroll report on Wednesday and the government’s official non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. These two releases are from June. The JOLTS report is notable for providing insight into the tightness of the labor market by tracking job openings, hiring, retirements, layoffs/dismissals, and other causes of turnover. Nevertheless, this is the least impactful of the three labor market updates. At this point, the data is one month old, and we already know the number of net jobs added to the economy in May. The answer, learned on June 5, was 172,000, which was higher than expected before the revision. Wednesday’s ADP report is an appetizer of what will be released on Thursday. The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report is an important report and will be released one day earlier this month given that markets are closed on Friday for Independence Day. Here you’ll find a wealth of data including private sector and government net job gains for June, as well as wage growth, labor force participation rates, and unemployment rates. The United States is a consumer-based economy, with two-thirds of its gross domestic product coming from consumer spending. The more people work and the more money they earn, the greater the potential for economic growth. As of Friday, economists expected payroll costs to rise by 87,500 jobs, the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3% and hourly wages to rise 0.3%, according to FactSet. Of course, Wall Street is always trying to stay ahead of the pack, which is why the ADP Employment Survey is the second most important report of the week. Although the report may only report private sector employment figures and not from official government sources, investors are still watching it for clues about the current state of the labor market to help position the non-farm report due later this week. As of Friday, economists expected the ADP report to show an increase of 92,500 jobs, according to FactSet. On the manufacturing side, the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly manufacturing report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the Census Bureau’s full report on factory orders on Thursday. Of these, ISM’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is the one that influences investors’ thinking about the market. This report is called a leading indicator because it provides forward-looking comments from industry participants. Indeed, on Thursday night, FedEx Freight CEO John Smith pointed out that the ISM PMI is meant to help gauge demand and manage business. Factory orders, on the other hand, are a lagging indicator because they include exactly what happened in the reporting month. While there is value in tracking the economy over time, markets will always value future information over historical information. 2. Nike Earnings: It’s mostly quiet on the earnings side, as it’s still some time before banks start reporting and the next earnings season officially begins. But Nike’s fiscal fourth quarter announcement on Tuesday night is extremely important to us. The market isn’t expecting much from the company, as its stock price has plummeted this year and is trading at a 10-year low. One reason for that is that Nike already told the Street last week that, excluding the one-time gain from tariff rebates, “4th quarter results are expected to be broadly consistent with previously provided guidance.” The disclosure coincided with the news that Pfizer executive David Denton will replace Matthew Friend as CFO. The purpose of providing this commentary is to assure the market that the CFO change is unrelated to untoward events occurring on the books. As a result, key variables in Tuesday night’s report will include sales trends and prospects in China, where Nike has struggled mightily in the face of local competition. As Jim Cramer pointed out at our monthly meeting in June, our patience with this unfortunate position is running thin. That’s why this is the quarter that will determine whether we win or lose. Either substantial progress will be made towards rebuilding, or the company will be forced to find a better place to spend its funds. As of Friday, analysts surveyed by LSEG expected Nike to report earnings of 13 cents per share on revenue of $10.86 billion. 3. Spinoff completed: Honeywell Aerospace will begin trading on its own on Monday, capping off a long-awaited spinoff from the company now known as Honeywell Technologies (formerly Honeywell International). Even before Honeywell announced it would spin off its crown jewel aviation division into a separate company in February 2025, Jim was pushing the company to streamline its vast portfolio. A big reason for this was that its conglomerate nature obscured Honeywell Aerospace’s true value. The aerospace industry is a fascinating industry, and the breakup of the old General Electric Company was incredibly profitable for GE Aerospace stock. And now we finally have a pure aviation stock from Honeywell, allowing the market to more fully assess its growth prospects and receive a proper valuation. Stockholders will receive one Honeywell Aerospace (ticker: HONA) share for every two Honeywell (ticker: HON) shares they own. The club holds 440 shares of HON stock. The company will own stock in both Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Technologies, which focuses on business and industrial automation. On Friday, RBC Capital initiated coverage of Honeywell Aerospace with a buy-equivalent rating and a $300 price target, implying HONA’s at-issue stock is up 36% from Friday’s close. Week Ahead Monday, June 29 Before the Bell: No reports of note After the close: Aerovironment (AVAV), Concentrics (CNXC) Tuesday, June 30 FHFA Home Price Index 9am ET May JOLTS 10am ET Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey (10am ET) Before the Bell: No reports of note After the close: Nike (NKE), Constellation Brands (STZ), Progress Software (PRGS) Wednesday, July 1 ADP Private Payroll Statistics 8:15 a.m. ET ISM Manufacturing PMI Before the Bell: General Mills (GIS), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), UniFirst Corporation (UNF) After the Close: No notable reports Thursday, July 2 Nonfarm Payrolls Report 8:30 a.m. ET Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims (ET) 8:30am ET Factory Orders 10am ET Bell: Lindsay Manufacturing (LNN) After the Close: No Reports of Note The U.S. stock market was closed on Friday, July 3rd for Independence Day (Jim Cramer Charitable Trust is long on NKE and FDXF. See here for a complete list of stocks.)Jim Cramer’s As a subscriber to CNBC Investment Club, you will receive trade alerts before Jim makes a trade. After Jim sends a trade alert, he waits 45 minutes before buying or selling stocks in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim talks about a stock on CNBC TV, he will issue a trade alert and then wait 72 hours before executing the trade. The above investment club information is subject to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, along with our disclaimer. No fiduciary duties or obligations exist or arise from your receipt of information provided in connection with the Investment Club. No specific results or benefits are guaranteed.
