From left: Rep. Claire Valdez, a Democratic representative from New York and a candidate for the House of Representatives. Brad Lander, former New York City Comptroller and U.S. House of Representatives candidate. Zoran Mamdani, Mayor of New York. Daria-Aliza Avila-Chevalier and House of Representatives candidate Daria-Aliza Avila-Chevalier during the “Get Out The Vote” rally ahead of the primary election at the King’s Theater in Brooklyn, New York on June 18, 2026.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
On Tuesday night, New York City Mayor Zoran Mamdani faces his first major electoral test since his election in November 2025. Although Mamdani is not on the ballot, he has the power to sway voters.
Mamdani is endorsing three candidates in New York City’s competitive Congressional primaries. They are former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, representing New York City’s 10th Congressional District, State Representative Claire Valdez, representing the 7th Congressional District, and first-time candidate Dalia Lisa Avila Chevalier, representing the 13th Congressional District.
Traders at prediction market platform Kalsi predict the mayor will make a 2-3 prediction.
Speculators are predicting 54% odds that Mr. Valdez and Mr. Lander will win and Mr. Chevalier will lose. There is also a 28% chance that all three candidates will win, and a 20% chance that Lander alone will win.
These odds are based on combo contracts, where all three events of an individual candidate’s win or loss must occur for the deal to resolve as “yes”. Combo contract results will be verified by the New York State Board of Elections.
Odds and gambling platforms are not replacements for political polls, as they do not use the techniques used in traditional political polls.
Lander, an ally of Mamdani, is challenging incumbent Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman. Mr. Goldman has come under fire from critics on the left for supporting Israel in areas including downtown Manhattan and Park Slope, Brooklyn.
In a contract that asks whether a candidate will win the Democratic nomination in New York’s 10th District, Carsi’s traders are giving Mr. Lander a near-certain chance to win the Democratic nomination. The results of individual candidate contracts will be verified by the Democratic Party.
Valdez is seeking to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Nydia Velasquez in the 7th District, which includes Williamsburg, Brooklyn, and Long Island City, Queens, but Velasquez is backing Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Reynoso is backed by the progressive Working Families Party, and Valdez is backed by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Carsi traders believe Valdez has the advantage. They give her a nearly 80% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Finally, Mr. Chevalier, also backed by the Democratic Socialist Party of America, is calling for the ouster of incumbent Congressman Adriano Espaira, chairman of the Hispanic Congressional Caucus. The 13th District covers Harlem and Washington Heights in Manhattan, as well as parts of the Bronx. Carsi traders believe there is a two-thirds chance that Espaillat will fend off Chevalier’s challenge.
Meanwhile, another controversial primary is underway in New York’s 12th District, which covers Midtown Manhattan, the Upper East Side, and the Upper West Side. Mr. Mamdani did not endorse any candidate in the election.
A rival artificial intelligence super PAC is trying to influence the candidacy of New York State Representative Alex Boaz, an ardent supporter of AI regulation. OpenAI-backed Leading the Future spent $8 million opposing Boas, and Anthropic-backed Public First Action spent $11 million supporting him.
However, Kalsi traders believe fellow state Rep. Micah Lasher is favored in 12th place and has a 74% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
