The race for the Golden Boot at the 2026 World Cup is shaping up to be a race that will go down in history.
After just two games, Argentina’s defender Lionel Messi leads the table with five goals, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé and Norway’s Erling Haaland with four goals each.
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Germany’s Deniz Unduff scored a hat-trick against Qatar and shared three goals with Canada’s Jonathan David.
Additionally, 20 players have scored twice in the opening two games, including 2018 Golden Boot winner Harry Kane of England, Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal, Vinicius Junior of Brazil and Mikel Oyarzabal of Spain.
All the stars have shone, and given their previous scoring rates it seems likely that they will need to score in double digits to win the Golden Boot, an award that has only been achieved three times in history, by Hungary’s Sándor Kocsis in 1954, France’s Juste Fontaine four years later, and Germany’s Gerd Müller in 1970.
Fontaine holds the record with 13 goals in a single World Cup in just six games for Sweden, but the tournament will expand to 48 teams in 2026, meaning the countries that qualify for July’s semi-finals will play an unprecedented eight games in the tournament.
At the 2006 World Cup in Germany and four years later in South Africa, just five goals were needed to win the Golden Boot, but no player has scored more than eight goals in the last 13 tournaments, a feat only achieved by Ronaldo in Brazil in 2002 and Mbappe in Qatar four years ago.
Why were there so many goals scored at the 2026 World Cup?
It took just 33 games to reach the century goal mark in this tournament, second only to 1954.
Portugal’s 5-0 win over Uzbekistan on Tuesday saw 139 goals scored in the first 45 games, the most in the group stage of a single competition, surpassing the 136 goals scored in 2014, which played three fewer games.
The record number of goals scored in one edition was 172 goals in 64 matches in Qatar 2022. There was always a chance that the new expanded format that came into effect this year would add 40 games, so the format could be broken, but scoring rates suggest the old marks will disappear.
One of the reasons for the increase in goals may be the Adidas Trionda ball commissioned by FIFA for this World Cup.
Ahead of the tournament, FIFA announced that it boasts several key performance innovations, including intentionally deep seams designed to create optimal in-flight stability by ensuring sufficient and evenly distributed drag as the ball travels through the air, while the surface of the ball has been designed to increase grip when hitting and dribbling in wet or humid conditions, which was seen heavily in the opening match.
Austria coach Ralf Rangnick said: “This ball has the speed of a cannon. If you kick the ball in the right place, it’s very difficult to save.”
The controversial addition of hydration breaks to each front line gives players more time to perform at their best and may have contributed to too many late goals so far. Of course, the fact that there are 48 teams taking part, drawn from the top 85 teams in the world rankings, means there will be some mismatches in the first stage.
Colombia coach Nestor Lorenzo also said that attackers are now more protected by referees than before, which could be a contributing factor to the increase in points scored, adding: “About 20 or 30 years ago, when there was a lot of attacking and rough play was more common, they didn’t have this kind of protection.”
“Nowadays, teams that defend well, counter-attack and try to play can manage to do well.”
Who is likely to win the Golden Boot?
Much will depend on fitness and of course how deep the country goes in the tournament, but Messi should be considered the favorite to win the maiden honor.
The 38-year-old scored seven goals in the last World Cup and has now scored in six consecutive tournament games, with goals in every final round in Qatar and the first two games of this tournament. He also missed a penalty against Austria, but that would have been a consecutive hat-trick.
Argentina’s final group game on Sunday is against already eliminated Jordan, but Messi has already secured top spot in Group J, so it is by no means a given that he will be included in that game from the start.
However, if they advance, they look set for a lucrative knock-out stage, with the possibility of facing Uruguay or Cape Verde in the last 32, Australia or Iran in the round of 16, and Croatia or Colombia in the quarter-finals.
Only in the semi-finals will they face a powerhouse, perhaps England or Brazil, or the dark horses of Japan, Norway and Mexico.
Mbappé is also likely to perform well and is likely to feature in Friday’s final group game against Norway, which will decide the top spot in Group I.
If they win in the group stage, they will face Sweden in the round of 32, Germany will be their opponents in the last 16, and either the Netherlands or Morocco will be waiting in the last eight.
The second-place finish between France and Norway could face a difficult task when they face Ivory Coast in the last 32, with Brazil or Japan awaiting the winner, with England potentially reaching the quarter-finals, and despite scoring 59 goals in 52 international games for Norway, Haaland’s prospects may be limited.
Kane will aim to be included in talks with England for their must-win Group L final game against Panama on Sunday, before a trip to the last 32 against Cape Verde, with Mexico likely to be waiting at Azteca (known as the Mexico City Stadium during the World Cup) in the Round of 16.
Cristiano Ronaldo may have come too late to begin his serious quest, with Portugal playing Colombia in their final Group K game on Sunday, and with Spain potentially facing mighty Ghana in the last 32 and Spain in the last 16.
But the finals will be a tougher test, with Vinicius Junior likely to add to his two-goal tally when Brazil face Scotland in their final Group C game on Thursday.
