Kyiv, Ukraine —
Russia is still making gradual inroads into the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, where it is concentrating most of its forces, while continuing its efforts to encircle the main “fortress zone” cities of Kostiantynivka and the city of Ryman.
However, outside experts and Ukrainian military personnel who spoke to CNN said Russia’s claims of progress were exaggerated and that the Kremlin was likely trying to stage a success story to counter the effects of the recent attacks on Ukraine inside Russia.
Russian state media TASS claimed on Monday that Russian troops had “completely taken control” of eastern Kostiantynivka and were closing in on the northeastern suburbs.
In reality, parts of the city are contested “grey zones” that neither side has control over, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank.
“These are incursions, not advances. Groups of perhaps one or two Russian military personnel are entering several positions in the city… It is not a consolidated position,” said Katerina Stepanenko, ISW’s Russian team leader, calling the tactics slow and laborious. “We still need a significant amount of time and significant resources to actually leverage that and strengthen our position.”
Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines told CNN that although the situation on the ground is deteriorating, it is manageable and that Russia remains extremely slow.
“The situation in the Kostyantynivka area, especially in Kostyantynivka itself, has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks,” Kostyantyn Melnykov, a spokesman for Ukraine’s 24th Mechanized Brigade, which is fighting in the nearby city of Chasiv Yar, told CNN on Tuesday. “The enemy is increasing the number of airstrikes in this area.”
Russia’s objective is to control the entire Donbas region of Ukraine, including the “fortress zone” of industrial cities, railways, and roads that forms the backbone of national defense and supplies the front lines. That includes the capture of Kostyantinivka and its surrounding settlements, which appears to be Russia’s main goal for now.
But Melnykov added that Ukrainian military units in the region were killing Russian troops, destroying equipment and “holding off vastly superior enemy forces.”
The Russian strategy was to infiltrate the city with very small infantry groups (those that survived the advance). This is the same tactic Moscow used to seize the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk in early 2026, a battle that lasted for months after Russian forces first entered the city and was marked by a number of premature occupation declarations.
Yury Madyar, acting deputy commander of Ukraine’s 19th Corps, said in an interview with Ukrainian state broadcaster Sashpyrne last week that Ukrainian forces had seen the advance of a Russian soldier in some cases.
CNN cannot independently verify the situation on the ground.
There are several reasons why Russia is currently ramping up its infiltration mission. A Russian commander posted on Telegram on Tuesday that his troops were able to take advantage of the summer green cover to advance. Good weather conditions also make it easier to fly drones, and this also applies to Ukraine.
There are also reports that the Kremlin has imposed a September deadline for seizing control of the Donbas region, but ISW assesses that Russia is unlikely to achieve that goal.
“The most important thing is that they want to declare an intelligence victory. The Russians are experiencing quite a lot of vulnerabilities right now,” Stepanenko said, citing Ukraine’s recent attacks on infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea and occupied Kherson, among other areas. “Infiltration is one of the ways Russia makes such grandiose declarations of victory without actually fully achieving its goals.”
However, the elements of progress that Russia claims are likely to be false. According to ISW, “Russian officials have recently stepped up a campaign to use potentially AI-altered footage to further exaggerated claims of Russian successes near fortified areas in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.”
For example, the Russian Ministry of Defense released a video of troops raising flags at Ryman, but ISW said it could not verify it, adding: “There is reason to believe that the footage may have been altered by AI.”
Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Tregubov said in an interview with local media that Ukrainian troops have indeed seen a “significant intensification of activity” in Ryman, particularly in the northern part of the city. But Tregubov claimed that Ukrainian forces had succeeded in pushing it back.
In response to the attack on Russian logistics networks in the region, Tregubov told Suspiine: “It appears that they (the Russians) are trying to achieve something before the logistics situation, including the supply of fuel and lubricants, starts to suffer in earnest.”
Meanwhile, Kiev has increased the intensity of its long-range drone attacks on Russia’s largest cities.
From early Sunday morning until Monday, Ukraine attacked the greater Moscow region for the third time in the past week.
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on Tuesday that the Ukrainian military is “attacking civilian infrastructure with drones with the aim of destabilizing Russian society,” according to TASS news agency.
This comes after Ukraine attacked an oil facility outside Moscow last week. The massive attack prompted an emergency response from Russian air defense forces, during which a Russian defense missile appeared to miss its target and inadvertently blew the lid off an oil storage tank.
Nevertheless, Putin still expressed confidence in Russia’s war objectives, adding: “We will get where we need to go.”
“Crimea will become an island”
Kiev has stepped up attacks on strongholds in Crimea in recent days, the Ukrainian peninsula occupied by Russia since 2014, destroying a railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal and attacking oil depots overnight into Tuesday.
Crimea’s largest city, Sevastopol, experienced a power outage on Wednesday after a Ukrainian attack on a major power substation, according to Mikhail Razbozayev, the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol. Two people were injured in the overnight attack, Razbozaev said.
In recent days, local authorities in Crimea, a popular summer holiday destination for Russians, have canceled children’s camps and suspended all outdoor sports activities until further notice.
Over the weekend, authorities announced that four people were killed and 28 injured in a drone attack in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s navy claimed that several ferries used to transport Russian military equipment to the peninsula had collided and were out of service.
“Essentially, Crimea is becoming isolated by drones, and it looks like in the near future Crimea will become an island,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhail Fedorov warned in an interview with local media last week.
