Both U.S. and Iranian delegations are scheduled to discuss next steps in the interim truce in Switzerland. Tehran will arrive with a big diplomatic stick: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran accused Israel of violating the Lebanese ceasefire and balked at attending talks scheduled for Friday, the first since Iranian and U.S. presidents signed a 14-article memorandum of understanding (MoU) earlier in the week.
Despite a ceasefire agreed between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah, violence there continues, with the death toll of Lebanese civilians rising on Saturday.
One of Pakistan’s top mediators flew to Tehran to try to convince Iranian negotiators to reconsider and join talks in the Swiss mountains.
Threats to close vital waterways appear to be a lever to secure a complete ceasefire in Lebanon.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency, which is linked to Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards, warned Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, one of the top negotiators, not to enter negotiations empty-handed. It said Iran had no obligation to keep the Strait of Hormuz open because the memorandum of understanding had been violated in Lebanon.
Iranian negotiators are clear. President Donald Trump signed the memorandum. Therefore, if he is unable to secure a ceasefire in Lebanon, the rest of the memorandum will be called into question.
By bringing a diplomatic stick to negotiations, Iranian negotiators are not only bringing hardliners to their side, but also ensuring that there is something they can trade to get what they want.
The Iranians’ ability to disrupt global trade in the Straits is their new superpower, and they clearly intend to take advantage of it.
