Lucerne, Switzerland —
This day was supposed to be historic. The U.S. vice president and Iran’s political leaders would gather in the same place — unthinkable for 47 years — in what was being billed as a direct signing of a document expected to lead to an end to the war.
However, the lack of a delegation from Switzerland is not the only reason the planned signing ceremony has been cancelled. The next stage of the process, the first round of technical consultations, a key step towards reaching a genuine peace agreement, has also been postponed.
These talks were scheduled to begin once the ink on the memorandum was dry. But something has become glaringly clear over the past few days.
The situation began to become volatile on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump suddenly signed the agreement remotely over dinner at the Palace of Versailles in France. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also quickly signed remotely, quickly raising questions about whether an in-person signing event was now necessary.
Later on Thursday, the White House press secretary confirmed that US Vice President J.D. Vance would not visit Lucerne before Swiss organizers announced that talks had been delayed, lamenting that the logistics “have never been easy or predictable.”
On Thursday night, shortly before the White House statement was released, the White House press corps was still waiting for Vance’s departure at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland.
All of this suggests that the second phase of this peace process will be just as bumpy and uncertain as the first.
And messages from Iran overnight made it clear that Iranian leadership remains highly skeptical of President Trump’s intentions.
Iran’s reclusive Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said overnight that “in principle, we have different views,” despite tacitly agreeing with his top advisors to approve the signature.
This was followed by a bombastic statement from parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a leading negotiator, vowing to “respond firmly” to any malicious, non-compliant or excessive demands from the other side. Iran’s powerful Supreme Council for National Security later said there was a “predetermined plan” for retaliation in the event of a violation, suggesting that, as at the outbreak of war, the Iranian military had prepared a list of targets to fire on if things failed.
Iran’s wariness of the United States is not new. After all, both this year’s and last year’s bombings of Iran took place during negotiations with American negotiators.
The message from the administration appears to have two purposes. One is to appease domestic hardliners who don’t want any business with the United States, and the other is to remind Washington that this could all fall apart.
The message was certainly addressed to an Israeli audience as well.
The memorandum declares “an immediate and permanent suspension of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.”
But despite Vance and other senior Trump officials increasingly criticizing Israel in public, fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah continues, with Lebanese media reporting that Israeli airstrikes have killed more than a dozen people today alone.
The Iranian government has always taken its written word very seriously and insists that the terms of the agreement be followed to the letter. The Trump administration’s approach appears to be somewhat different.
Vance said Thursday that there was a secret “gentleman’s agreement” beyond what was contained in the memorandum, saying: “We don’t believe in words. We believe in actions.”
It took months to reach agreement on just a 14-point memorandum. The next round of technical talks aimed at tackling the thorny issue of Iran’s nuclear program will be even more complex.
It is not yet clear when these important talks will begin, or even what form they will take at this point. However, the grace period for reaching an agreement is only 60 days, and any delay would reduce the time available for peace negotiations.
