Switzerland is scheduled to hold a referendum on Sunday on limits on its population, a proposal driven by disagreements over immigration and which, if approved, could put Switzerland in conflict with the European Union.
Swiss voters will be asked a simple question: Should Switzerland’s population be capped at 10 million? If a majority votes in favor, it will become the first country in Europe to impose population limits.
The current population is just over 9 million, up from 8.3 million a decade ago. According to government statistics, more than a quarter of residents are foreign-born.
The proposed cap was proposed by the country’s largest political group, the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), which calls it a matter of “sustainability.”
On its campaign website, the SVP claims that “uncontrolled immigration is causing Switzerland to grow too rapidly”, that “the negative effects are noticeable in all areas of life” and that “many people increasingly feel like outsiders in their own country”.
But business leaders have warned that proposals to cap the population risk having a negative impact on the economy, leaving businesses struggling to find jobs.
Jürg Müller, director of the Swiss think tank Avenir Suisse, told CNN that the country is under pressure from recent population growth, partly due to its economic success. “We see tensions building in the housing market, infrastructure, access to the lake, etc., and it feels too crowded for many people.” SVP “took that feeling and turned it into this initiative,” he said.
There is widespread political opposition to this measure. However, under Switzerland’s referendum system, proposals can be put to a public vote if they collect at least 100,000 signatures from voters within 18 months.
Sunday’s vote is likely to be a very close race, according to recent polls. Opinion polls in early May showed the two sides in even positions. According to polling firm gfs.bern, a slight majority (52%) now oppose the cap.
“Switzerland is fascinating.”
According to Swiss government data, Switzerland’s population has tripled over the past 100 years. Immigration far outweighed the impact of the declining birth rate, and the population reached the 9 million level in 2024. Although Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, a free movement agreement has been in force since 2002. Switzerland is also part of the 29-nation Schengen Area, which allows its citizens to travel border-free throughout most of Europe.
The majority of the population (approximately 27%) is made up of foreign residents who do not hold a Swiss passport.
Many are from the European Union, and almost half of the country’s foreigners come from just four countries: Italy, Germany, Portugal and France.
According to Müller, this level of immigration is mainly due to Switzerland’s relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner, and its physical location in the heart of Europe. Both these factors have a significant impact on a country’s economic stability.
“Life in France and Germany has changed in recent decades. The quality of life in Switzerland is very high… Paris is three hours away, Milan is three hours away. It’s just a great place to live,” said Müller.
“Switzerland is attractive. The economy is strong. Switzerland has historically done quite a lot of things right in terms of economic policy. Historically it has had less regulation and lower taxes than its neighbors.”
Muller argues that support for the referendum was motivated not so much by xenophobia as by people’s concerns that the population was growing at an uncontrollable rate.
However, the ProCap campaign website appears to be using anti-Muslim rhetoric to make its point.
“The problem of asylum seekers from Islamic countries. Research shows that certain immigrant groups are many times more likely to commit crimes than others,” one section of the website reads.
Elsewhere on the website, under the subheading “Loss of culture and identity,” there is a photo of a woman with her head covered holding up a Swiss passport. The same page notes concerns about “creeping Islamization” and that French nationals from North Africa are harassing women at swimming pools in Switzerland.
The executive vice president declined to be interviewed by CNN for this story.
“This is pure xenophobia. It ends up scapegoating foreigners, as if they are the solution to all the evils of society. It’s deceptive and dangerous,” Green Party lawmaker Delfin Klopfenstein told Reuters.
The Zurich-based Tages-Anzeiger newspaper quoted Beat Jans, a member of Switzerland’s governing body, the Bundestag, as saying: “On June 14, we will experience the moment of Brexit. A ‘yes’ vote will isolate us.”
If the vote passes, the government will be obliged to pass measures to curb immigration in two stages.
First, once the population reaches 9.5 million, the government must deny entry to new arrivals, including asylum seekers and families of foreign residents.
And if the population reaches 10 million, the government will be forced to abandon its free movement agreement with the EU.
Critics have warned that a yes vote could have a major impact on Switzerland’s economy, which relies on foreign workers for many roles.
The country’s largest business union, Economy Switzerland, called the proposal a “dangerous boomerang” that “poses a huge threat to Switzerland’s prosperity” and called the vote a “disruptive endeavour”.
Professor Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economy Switzerland, Switzerland’s business umbrella organization, warned late last year that population controls would exacerbate labor shortages in a country with an aging population. “Many more young people will leave the workforce than join,” he wrote, adding: “If the immigration of urgently needed workers is stopped, Switzerland will be stuck in a vicious cycle. There will be a shortage of foreign workers everywhere, whether in restaurants, hotels, hospitals, kiosks… or in the export industry.”
“As a result of this initiative, the shortage of skilled workers will become even worse, leading to increased costs that many companies will have to pass on. At the same time, it will become even more difficult, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, to maintain normal service levels,” said Martin von Muth, president of Hotelier Suisse, the association representing the Swiss hotel industry.
The final decision now rests with the Swiss people, with the result expected to be known after Sunday evening.
