A vehicle passes through a plaza beneath a sign featuring an AI-generated image of the Strait of Hormuz and a portrait of U.S. President Donald Trump on the wall of a state building in downtown Tehran, Iran, on May 3, 2026.
Null Photo | Null Photo | Getty Images
Hello, my name is Hui Jie from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.
Reports that a peace deal may be reached between Iran and the United States are once again raising investor expectations and pushing up the stock market.
But with few details available, the question is whether this moment marks real progress or just a false dawn.
What you need to know today
The last time I mentioned in this newsletter that peace may be on the way, I returned from the weekend to find that tensions were rising again.
Now I have a feeling of déjà vu. Axios reported that the United States and Iran are close to signing a one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding that would end the war and establish a framework for further nuclear negotiations.
Axios said early Wednesday morning US time that the US government expected answers from the Iranian government on “several key points” within the next 48 hours.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday pressed Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict and refrain from resuming hostilities during talks in Beijing.
But US President Donald Trump also weighed in, saying Iran would be bombed “at a much higher level and intensity than we’ve seen before” if it doesn’t agree to a peace deal.
Oil prices fell and US stocks rose on the news, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new records at 7,365.12 and 25,838.94, respectively. Japanese Nikkei Stock Average By the end of the holiday, the number of people in South Korea exceeded 62,000, setting a record high. Kospi It also hit new highs in early Asian markets.
US crude oil futures fell below the $100 mark for the first time since April 28, closing at $95.08 per barrel. Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, fell nearly 8% to close at $101.27 a barrel.
Meanwhile, the energy crisis continues, with the loss of jet fuel supplies from the Middle East spilling over into these regions and threatening summer holidays in Asia and Europe.
Global jet fuel exports fell 30% to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in April from 1.9 million bpd in the same month a year ago, according to Kpler data.
Investors may rejoice at whispers of peace, but jet fuel shortages and President Trump’s threats remind us that volatility is not at rest.
— Lim Huijie
