The combined photo shows OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (left) on April 28, 2026, and Elon Musk on April 29, 2026, during the trial of Elon Musk’s lawsuit over OpenAI’s commercialization in federal court in Oakland, California.
Manuel Orbegoso | Reuters
Elon Musk has about a 36% chance of success in his lawsuit against OpenAI, according to Kalsi traders, one of the lowest odds since the trial began in Oakland, California, a week ago.
The billionaire sued OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and company president Greg Brockman in 2024, accusing them of failing to maintain the company’s nonprofit status. OpenAI’s lawyers cross-examined Musk on Thursday, asking whether he knew about the nature of Microsoft’s cap on investments in OpenAI, his participation in negotiations over the company’s structure, and the OpenAI nonprofit’s recent efforts. Musk said he doesn’t know what’s going on with OpenAI.
Last week, predictions that Musk would prevail in his lawsuit against OpenAI peaked at nearly 60%, but by Friday afternoon they had plummeted to about 50%.
Sunday’s filing revealed that Musk sent a text message to Brockman about the settlement days before the trial began.
Musk has donated approximately $38 million to AI companies, which he claims were instead used for unauthorized commercial purposes. He and Mr. Altman, once close friends, co-founded the company in 2015 with a mission to “benefit humanity as a whole, unfettered by the need to generate economic profit.”
OpenAI is a nonprofit organization that has taken control of the for-profit business after completing a recapitalization in October. After Musk stepped down as director in 2018, he also launched a for-profit subsidiary.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
