Raul Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the grandson of former Cuban President Raul Castro, appeared at several public events led by Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel on Friday, raising questions about his role as Cuba’s leader as the country faces demands for regime change from the United States, analysts said.
On Friday morning, Mr. Rodríguez Castro took part in a meeting held by Mr. Díaz-Canel with the leaders of the Cuban Communist Party and the Council of Ministers. Prime Minister Díaz-Canel then attended a press conference in which he addressed the island’s social and economic crisis and confirmed that his government had spoken with the United States about the pressure Washington has maintained on Havana since the 1960s and has intensified in recent months.
Rodríguez Castro’s appearance comes weeks after reports surfaced that he was allegedly in talks with the United States over the island’s future.
According to Axios, the talks were held with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, bypassing the official channels of the Cuban government.
CNN has not been able to confirm this information with the U.S. State Department or the Cuban government.
Still, some analysts and many Cubans believe that with Cuba facing significant political and economic pressure from the United States, Rodriguez Castro has a growing public profile and could even assume a leadership role in the event of regime change.
Cuba’s communist government, weakened by decades of U.S. sanctions and economic mismanagement, is facing one of its deepest crises in years, pushing the country into a humanitarian emergency. There are widespread power outages, hospitals are cutting back on surgeries, fuel and food shortages are worsening, and tourism is declining.
The situation in Cuba further deteriorated after the US operation to remove Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro on January 3. His government has long supplied Cuba with heavily subsidized oil. The severing of ties between Venezuela and Cuba is part of Washington’s broader strategy to overthrow the communist-run Havana government. Since mid-December, the US government has blocked Venezuelan oil shipments to Cuba, putting Venezuela under economic pressure.
U.S. officials said the raid to capture Maduro also exposed Cuba’s vulnerabilities, and while there were no U.S. military casualties, dozens of Cuban security personnel assigned to protect Maduro were killed.
The US government’s decision to keep some of Mr Maduro’s allies in power in Venezuela, including allowing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to serve as acting president, suggested the Trump administration may be willing to strike a deal with Cuba’s rivals rather than seek complete regime change.
U.S. officials had already held secret talks with Venezuelan elites before Maduro’s arrest, and are now reportedly seeking similar contacts with powerful Cuban figures.
his grandfather’s bodyguard
Rodríguez Castro, 41, is the son of Deborah Castro Espin, one of Raúl Castro’s daughters, and Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, the general who headed the Business Administration Group (GAESA), a consortium of companies under military command. Rodriguez López-Calleja, who died in 2022, was one of the former president’s closest confidants, according to the Associated Press.
Sebastian Arcos, director of the Cuba Institute at Florida International University, said Rodríguez López-Calleja was “a person that Raúl Castro had complete confidence in.” Arcos told CNN that his son began to rise through the ranks after Rodríguez López-Calleja’s death and was responsible for his grandfather’s security during his presidential term from 2008 to 2018.
“Raul Guillermo, known as ‘El Cangrejo’ (The Crab), became the person in charge of Raul’s personal security and the person in charge of his personal security,” Arcos said. “Eventually, he became the head of what amounted to Cuba’s secret service.”
Photos from Reuters show Rodriguez Castro protecting his 94-year-old grandfather at various times, including during meetings with the late Pope Francis and senior Russian officials.
Rodríguez Castro is widely known in Cuba by his nickname “Laurito,” meaning “little Raul.”
Rodriguez Castro is the grandnephew of Fidel Castro, who led the Cuban Revolution in 1959 and served as Cuba’s president from 1976 to 2008. Castro stepped down due to health problems and died in 2016.
International relations expert Fausto Pretelin said Rodriguez Castro has no known history within the Cuban Communist Party. Diana Correa, director of international relations programs at the Tecnológico de Monterrey, believes that President Diaz-Canel’s appearance on Friday at a public event shows both Raul Castro’s continued influence in Cuban politics and the trust the former president has in his grandson.
“What strikes me is that it’s happening in the public domain now, but what we really have to ask ourselves, and it’s very difficult to know the answer, is how long has he been serving as this means of communication,” she said.
Another member of the former president’s inner circle is his son Alejandro Castro Espin, who many Cubans had long seen as a possible successor after Castro resigned in 2018, Arcos said.
“They participate in all these high-level government meetings, even though neither of them hold any government positions. They are Raul Castro’s eyes and ears on everything that happens at the government level. So it is not surprising that they were Raul Castro’s interlocutors in the supposed negotiations with the United States,” he said.
CNN has reached out to the Cuban president for more information about Rodríguez Castro and Castro Espin’s current roles.
Multiple media outlets have reported that Mr. Rubio and Mr. Rodríguez Castro have had secret discussions, but neither has publicly acknowledged the matter.
Rubio mentioned the Cuban Missile Crisis to reporters on the sidelines of a Caribbean community gathering in St. Kitts and Nevis in late February.
“Cuba needs to change. It needs to change. And it doesn’t have to change all at once. It doesn’t have to change from one day to the next. Everyone here is mature and realistic,” Rubio said on February 25.
“And they need to make dramatic reforms. And if they want to make dramatic reforms that open up space for economic and ultimately political freedom for the Cuban people, obviously the United States would want that,” he added.
Correa emphasized that amid the Cuban Missile Crisis, many people see Rodríguez Castro’s increased presence as a sign that a change of government may occur in talks with the United States.
“A lot of people are now saying this is certainly a generational shift, somewhat behind the scenes, but still taking over operational control,” she said. “By having Mr. Castro negotiate, it seems to be sending a signal, at least externally, that the negotiations are serious because this person represents all of the power of the state,” she concluded.
Fix:
This article has been updated to reflect that Rodríguez Castro was previously seen in public with Diaz-Canel.
