Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel (C) participates in an “anti-imperialist” protest in front of the U.S. Embassy against the U.S. invasion of Venezuela, which killed 32 Cuban soldiers in Havana, January 16, 2026.
Yamil Raji | AFP | Getty Images
“Cuba is next,” Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, an ally of President Donald Trump, said after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
The United States has imposed an oil blockade on the communist-ruled island nation since January, shortly after President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela, an ally and key oil supplier, was detained in an extraordinary military operation. It has triggered a worsening economic crisis, with Cuba facing its biggest challenge since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Currently, Iran, which has a strategic partnership with Cuba, is under continuous attack. “The Communist dictatorship in Cuba has reached the end of its lifespan,” Graham said on Fox News’ “Sunday Night in America.”
Before the attack on Iran, President Trump said he wanted a “friendly occupation” of the island, without going into details. Experts told CNBC that these comments, along with U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela, have done little to allay the growing fear in Havana.
The message from Cuba has been consistent since 1959: survival can only be achieved by adapting to changing geopolitical circumstances.
Pa Kumaraswamy
Professor, University of Nottingham
A “friendly takeover” could be similar to what happened in Venezuela after Maduro’s ouster, with “a dictatorship still in power, but moving in a direction and at a speed determined by the United States,” said Carlos Solar, senior Latin American security fellow at the London-based defense think tank RUSI.
Solar told CNBC in an email that Cuba lost support from Venezuela and Iran in a “moment of maximum pressure” from the Trump administration.
However, he added, “What is unclear is how the United States will collapse the Cuban regime and force Havana to surrender.”
“We are not seeing the kind of military buildup that preceded Operation Absolute Solution, which ultimately led to Maduro’s capture in January. It is entirely possible that the United States will approach Cuba in a completely different way,” Solar said.
A Turkish Airlines plane takes off from José Martí International Airport in Havana on February 9, 2026.
Yamil Raji | AFP | Getty Images
A White House spokesperson and the Cuban embassy in London did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.
Cuba’s foreign ministry called for an end to the conflict in the Middle East and said it “condemns in the strongest terms” the joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran on February 28.
“The Cuban people are becoming more and more concerned.”
Russia recently warned that the situation in Cuba appears to be escalating after Cuban troops killed four people off the coast of Cuba in a U.S.-registered speedboat.
A blockade has effectively cut Cuba off from Venezuelan oil since it launched a military operation to capture Maduro on January 3. Cuba said 32 of its citizens were killed in the attack.
Trump also said the Cuban government posed an “unusual and extraordinary threat” and promised to impose tariffs on any country that supplies oil to the country. However, the U.S. Treasury Department announced late last month that it would allow Venezuelan oil to be resold to the Cuban private sector.
The move appears to reflect a small step toward easing the island’s severe fuel shortages, which have forced airlines to cut back on flights to the country. Tourism has long been an important source of income for Cuba’s cash-strapped government.
On February 17, 2026, a bisi taxi runs in front of piles of garbage on the streets of Havana.
Yamil Raji | AFP | Getty Images
Par Kumaraswamy, a professor of Latin American studies at the University of Nottingham in the UK, told CNBC that the Trump administration’s attacks on Iran and recent comments about the Cuban regime have created an atmosphere of uncertainty and fear in Havana.
“The Cuban people are increasingly worried about how they will survive in the midst of such global turmoil, and the recent violence against Iran will do nothing to allay their fears,” Kumaraswamy said in an email.
“At the same time, there are signs that the U.S. government is negotiating with the Cuban government regarding changes to the Cuban economy, which certainly reflects Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s current focus on improving the economy as a priority,” she added.
Kumaraswamy said the “message from Cuba” has been “consistent” since the communists came to power in 1959, adding that “survival will only be achieved by adapting to the changing geopolitical situation.”
“Cuba just bought itself a window.”
Cuba is taking steps to protect essential services and ration fuel supplies to key sectors. The United Nations has previously warned that humanitarianism could “collapse” as the country’s oil supplies dwindle.
“Cuba just got its own window, but it’s narrow,” Robert Manx, head of Americas research at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC in an email.
“The operation against Iran will temporarily take Cuba out of the US government’s sights as it focuses on Gulf operations in the coming weeks.”
But Manx said he expects Cuba to be in the headlines again, adding that the Cuban diaspora in South Florida will add pressure and shows the U.S. government is prioritizing the Western Hemisphere in its restructured national security strategy.
“For now, the regime in Havana remains at the helm. Disruptions caused by economic difficulties could occur suddenly and spontaneously, giving the US government an excuse to refocus its efforts on putting pressure on the regime,” Manx said.
