Before dawn on Monday morning, Hezbollah launched a “swarm of missiles and drones” at a military base in northern Israel, opening a new front in the US-Israel war against Iran.
The Iranian-backed extremist group, which has a stronghold in southern Lebanon, claimed it was revenge for the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Never mind that Israel says there were no casualties from the attack. One projectile was intercepted, and the other fell into an open area.
Or that Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called it an “irresponsible and questionable act” and banned Hezbollah’s military activities.
Israel has been preparing for this moment for months. Even after the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect in 2024, Israeli forces continue to attack Lebanon almost daily, accusing Hezbollah of violating the agreement by rearming and rebuilding its army. Israel announced in November that it had killed Hezbollah’s second-ranking leader and chief of staff, Haysam Ali Tabatabai.
But they were mainly personal attacks.
The United States has sought in the past to stem the escalation of the conflict along the Israel-Lebanon border, helping set up the first direct talks between civilian officials from both countries late last year.
And a week ago, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raghi said: “We have received warnings indicating that any intervention on the part of Hezbollah could prompt Israel to attack infrastructure targets.” The warning came before Israel and the United States jointly attacked Iran.
Raggi said on social media that he hoped Hezbollah would “refrain from embarking on new adventures and avoid further destruction of Lebanon.”
Now, with Hezbollah’s decision to enter and escalate the conflict, Israeli leadership has every reason to dramatically step up its attacks on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and the capital, Beirut.
“Hezbollah opened fire last night. We warned you. There will be a heavy price to pay,” said Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Brigadier General John Brig. General Effie Deflin at a press conference. At least 31 people were killed and 149 injured in Israeli airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon, the Lebanese Ministry of Health said as of Monday morning.
A day earlier, Israel announced it would call up 100,000 reservists in “dozens of battalions, brigades and divisions”, many of whom will be deployed to its northern border with Lebanon. The IDF still occupies five locations across the border, which it holds indefinitely as observation posts that allow it to monitor southern Lebanon.
With such a large mobilization of additional troops, Deflin was asked whether Israel was preparing for a broader ground invasion into Lebanon.
“All options are on the table. We are continually assessing the situation,” DeFlin said.
Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, the IDF’s foreign media spokesperson, was more modest when asked the same question. “There are no immediate preparations underway for a ground invasion,” Shoshani told reporters. But he warned of the possibility of a long campaign.
“If Hezbollah escalates further, this situation could last for several weeks.”
