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San Jose, Costa Rica
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After an election season overshadowed by crime and political apathy, Costa Rica heads to the polls this Sunday to choose its new president.
Costa Ricans are most concerned about security this year, a poll has found, as gang violence continues in a country long considered a peaceful tourist hub. Voters are also troubled by a declining quality of life and the country’s chaotic political climate, as evidenced by the 20 presidential candidates alone.
Among the many candidates, the one leading the national search is Laura Fernández, a 39-year-old former national planning minister from the right wing of the country’s ruling party.
In Costa Rica, a candidate must receive at least 40 percent of the vote in the first round to be elected president. If no one reaches that threshold, the top two advance to a runoff.
According to the Center for Research and Political Research at the University of Costa Rica (CIEP-UCR), Fernández’s lead in the polls means she is close to securing the presidency in the first round. No one occupies second place. More than a quarter of CIEP-UCR survey respondents are undecided.
Costa Rica’s recent struggle with criminal violence is a cruel irony. This country has long been a model of peace. It became the first country in a region marked by political turmoil to abolish its military, a source of national pride.
However, government statistics show that the past three years have been the most violent in recent Costa Rican history, with 2023 hitting a record high of 905 murders. The government attributes much of the violence to drug trafficking. In January, the US Treasury claimed the country had become a “significant transshipment point for global cocaine.”
Of course, Costa Rica is not alone in this trend. From Ecuador to Chile to Honduras, crime-related fears have driven thousands of Latinos to polling places in recent months. The fight against crime in the region has been particularly overshadowed by the government of El Salvador and its self-proclaimed “dictator” Nayib Boucle.
Bukele, whose mass incarceration campaign and police crackdown have pushed El Salvador’s murder rate to historic lows, faces numerous allegations of human rights abuses, particularly regarding his notorious Confinement Center for Terrorism (CECOT).
Despite this, he is still very popular in Latin America. He has also sought to promote his iron-fisted brand of governance in Costa Rica, where the government last month broke ground on a CECOT-style prison with Bukele’s blessing.
“Nayib Bukele’s presence is important, legitimate and an honor to us,” outgoing president Rodrigo Chávez declared at the groundbreaking ceremony.
José Andres Díaz González, a political scientist at the National University of Costa Rica Heredia, told CNN that the security crisis is coupled with a decline in the country’s social services.
“The foundations of the social compact are being weakened,” Diaz said. “Health is affected by the accelerating deterioration of Costa Rica’s social security funds, education is a driver of social mobility, and security is affected by an increase in murders and a loss of security within the home.”
Diaz noted that Costa Rica, like many other countries, is facing a demographic cliff. An aging population threatens to put further strain on a safety net that is already coming apart at the seams.
“We are at a demographic transition, which means we need to produce more with fewer people,” Díaz explained. “In 15 or 20 years’ time, pension systems will be under even more pressure, with fewer contributors, less tax revenue and more demand for care for older people.”
Costa Rica experienced an economic recovery in 2024 and the first half of 2025, according to a 2025 report from the Program on National Affairs (PEN), a local think tank.
The country became the first Central American country to join the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2021, but the organization’s latest report on Costa Rica paints a rosy initial picture of an “improved” fiscal situation, with lower unemployment, lower debt and an increased share of high-tech exports.
The OECD report says Costa Rica’s growth has been “more resilient and strong” than any other country.
But the rising numbers only tell half the story, said Leonardo Merino, a political scientist at PEN.
“Costa Rica’s economic growth has nothing to do with the well-being of its people,” Merino told CNN. He explained that much of the growth is concentrated in so-called “free trade zones” that offer investors significant tax breaks and tariff exemptions.
“Free trade areas are a major driver of growth, but they account for only 12% of employment and about 15% of production,” Merino said. “The domestic market economy, which accounts for a large proportion of the population, is experiencing little growth and has been abandoned.”
The OECD agreed with that assessment, writing that “innovation outcomes are weaker” outside free trade areas.
This attrition is also reflected in the marked political apathy in Costa Ricans’ daily lives. Thirty years ago, nearly everyone in Costa Rica belonged to a political party, Merino said. Today, only one-fifth of the population supports a particular political party.
“This is a worrying trend,” Merino said. “Less and fewer people are voting, younger people are less involved, and now even older people are turning away from voting.”
In 2022, Costa Rica recorded the lowest voter turnout in recent history, with two in five voters staying home on election day.
Both Díaz and Merino agree that Costa Rica’s social compact, built over more than a century, is at risk. Just as Costa Rica has no standing army, environmental concerns have long been central to its identity, and the country has set ambitious sustainability goals.
But two political scientists say even that is changing. The idea of a “green Costa Rica” coexists today with proposals to abolish a 20-year ban on fossil fuel exploration and development of natural resources such as precious metals, gas and oil.
“This is not just a choice. If we don’t take action, the deterioration is likely to continue. And so far, no political party has considered this issue as seriously as it needs to be,” Díaz said.
Voting day in Costa Rica is about more than just deciding who holds political office. It will also test the country’s politicians’ ability to reconnect with an increasingly estranged population and resolve the tensions building up in Costa Rica’s social fabric. Will a military-free country known for its environmental protection become the next El Salvador?
