Ukraine’s military has come under increasing pressure in the country’s south, where its troops are vastly outnumbered by the Russian brigades that are poorly equipped and have seized hundreds of square kilometers of territory in recent weeks.
Russian troops advanced across the open countryside in several areas of southern Zaporizhzhia. A Ukrainian official in the country’s Security Bureau (SBU) told CNN on Wednesday that the situation in the region was “tense.”
“The enemy is trying to strengthen its negotiating position by trying to capture more territory,” said the officer, who goes by the call sign “Bankir.”
He added that Russian forces are using small groups of infantry and are “trying to use all means and means to break through the most poorly defended positions.”
Much of the recent fighting has taken place in and around the town of Hryaipol. Hryaipol is located about 80 kilometers (50 miles) east of the regional capital Zaporizhzhia, which had a prewar population of more than 700,000 people.
At a meeting on Sunday attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the commander of Russian forces in the area, Colonel Andrei Ivanaev, claimed that the town had been captured. Ivanaev told Putin that his forces had occupied more than 210 square kilometers of territory in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye oblasts since early December, adding to Kremlin lore that Russia would eventually achieve its goal of occupying four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine.
Deep State, an unofficial Ukrainian conflict mapping company, reported on Monday that Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions in parts of Khriipole, but it is now a “gray zone” and that the Russian side has “many times more personnel.”
According to Deep State, the town’s low-lying location made it difficult to reinforce the position.
Ukrainians rely heavily on drones in areas where infantry is in short supply. Effective in destroying Russian platoons in open countryside. However, areas densely populated with abandoned buildings and basements can protect advancing troops.
Last week, a video was released showing Russian troops occupying a Ukrainian military command post in Hryaypol and examining laptops and files left behind.
Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Shirushkyi admitted that the command post was captured “due to weak defenses.”
Shirshiky criticized the battalion for leaving behind classified information, although the territorial brigade “could not withstand enemy pressure during the battle” and gradually withdrew.
Another independent watchdog, the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), said: “Ukrainian forces may remain only in the western part (of Khryaypol).” “Under these circumstances, Khryaipol, like Pokrovsk, may already be de facto occupied,” the paper said.
“These units held their positions for a long time and were not sent to the rear for rest and rebuilding, despite suffering very heavy losses in recent months,” CIT added.
What happened in Khryaipol goes to the heart of the Ukrainian military’s dilemma. Several commentators say troops are severely outnumbered in some areas of the 1,000-kilometre-long front and are struggling to mobilize additional troops to make up for losses.
“That means commanders will have to make difficult choices about where to attack, where to defend, and hope that Russian forces will not take advantage of gaps in the Ukrainian military front,” analyst David Ax wrote on Wednesday.
“A small territorial battalion cannot be expected to stop a Russian motorized rifle brigade, especially if the territory lacks strong support from adjacent artillery and drone units,” Ax noted.
A lack of consistent command among Ukrainian forces in the south and decisions to prioritize defense of other areas, such as Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, likely also contributed to the deterioration of the situation in the south.
In mid-December, the Ukrainian military diverted some elite troops to Hryaipol, but it was “too little, too late” to save the town, Ax said.
