President Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan is set to enter a new phase in the coming weeks, but key parts of the deal remain undefined as Israel tightens its military control over the devastated enclave.
The first phase of the 20-point plan is nearing completion, as all but one of the dead hostages held by the militants have been returned, with doubts over whether Hamas will even find the last remains.
Now, amid international concern that the two-month ceasefire is on the verge of collapse, President Trump is determined to move on to a far more complex second phase of the deal, which includes disarming Hamas, beginning reconstruction and establishing post-war governance. Central to the new plan to manage Gaza is the creation of a “peace commission” to be led by Trump and other world leaders.
“It’s going to be one of the most legendary boards ever. Everybody wants to be on the board,” President Trump said Wednesday at the White House.
Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s public acceptance of the deal in September, significant gulfs remain between the United States and Israel. The United States is pushing for a quick next step, but Israel has conditioned major steps on the return of the last dead hostage and is resisting American efforts to break up a standoff with a group of isolated Hamas militants in Israeli-occupied territory in southern Gaza.
“A lot of[the second phase]is open to interpretation, and that’s both the best and the worst in the Middle East,” an Israeli official told CNN.
Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, along with Egypt and Norway, warned over the weekend that the ceasefire was at a “critical moment” and at risk of collapsing as mediators tried to make progress. “What we have done now is a pause because we are not there yet,” Al Thani said at the Doha Forum on Saturday.
While the Trump administration is poised to begin repairing and rebuilding the enclave, Israel remains focused on disarming Hamas and demilitarizing Gaza. This is an important element of the agreement, but the path forward is not clear.
“The question is whether Hamas will remain there in the meantime, but that’s it. We just get used to it and accept it,” another Israeli official told CNN. Trump wants to see progress before Netanyahu visits the president’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida later this month, the official said.
The United States is also continuing to finalize key details ahead of a possible announcement of a second phase, including the structure of the plan’s required international security forces and a peace commission to oversee governance of Gaza, U.S. officials said.
Two months on, the ceasefire has been repeatedly tested, with both Hamas and Israel accusing each other of violating the agreement. Nearly 400 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since they took effect in October, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health. During the same period, the Israeli military announced that three soldiers were killed by Hamas militants. Human rights groups have also accused Israel of not keeping its promises regarding the flow of humanitarian aid and blocking essential items such as tents from entering the Strip.
On Sunday, Israeli military commander Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir said Israeli troops would remain on the so-called Yellow Line in the Gaza Strip, which they withdrew from as part of the cease-fire deal, calling the frontier “a new border that will serve as the front line of defense and operational line for our communities.”
Israeli forces occupy more than half of the Gaza Strip, but later stages of the deal call for a complete withdrawal. According to the agreement, Israel is prohibited from permanently occupying or annexing the enclave.
Meanwhile, the United States is pressuring Israel to open the Rafah border between Gaza and Egypt, which was supposed to resume operations as part of the ceasefire agreement. But Israel announced in October that it would remain closed “until further notice.” Earlier this month, Israel announced it would open railroad crossings in only one direction for Palestinians to leave Gaza, but no one would be allowed to enter, sparking anger in Arab and Islamic countries, which called the move an “attempt to drive Palestinians from their land.” Ministers in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing government have repeatedly called for the “voluntary” relocation of Gaza residents and their replacement by Jews.
The United States is working to resolve the conflict, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio plans to raise the issue with the Israeli side on Wednesday, US officials said ahead of the talks.
Egyptian officials blamed the lack of progress on the next steps on the rift of mistrust between Israel and Hamas. “Everything about it is tied to internal calculations on both sides,” the official told CNN. They added that political divisions within the Israeli government and between Palestinian factions limit the mediator’s ability to take meaningful action on a range of issues.
The official said, “The second stage will not be frozen just because we have one point.” “It is frozen because every step affects the future of Gaza and the parties are not yet willing to pay the political costs of making a final decision.”
The biggest demand for Israel is the demilitarization of Gaza. The agreement calls for the destruction of Hamas’ weapons and the destruction of the militant group’s infrastructure.
On Sunday, a senior Hamas official said the insurgents were “very tolerant” when it came to weapons.
“If there is a guarantee from the Palestinian side that it will not be used at all during or during this ceasefire, we can talk about freezing it, storing it and destroying it,” Bassem Naim told The Associated Press in an interview in Qatar. This proposal does not appear to meet the disarmament provisions of the cease-fire agreement, and it is unclear whether Israel will accept other terms.
To manage disarmament, the agreement calls for the deployment of international forces to secure parts of the Gaza Strip prior to Israel’s withdrawal. But that power now exists only on paper. Last month, the U.N. Security Council passed a U.S.-sponsored resolution that spelled out President Trump’s 20-point plan, including the tasks needed to create a multinational force in Gaza, although no country has an official presence yet.
U.S. officials say the Trump administration’s goal is to send troops to Gaza early next year. However, it is not clear which countries will participate. Countries such as Indonesia and Azerbaijan had previously expressed a willingness to send troops, but now they appear to be less so. American and Israeli officials told CNN that international forces will initially deploy alongside Israeli forces in the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip, but it is unclear whether Islamic countries want to be seen as cooperating with Israeli forces.
Israeli officials say Israel will continue to support anti-Hamas militias in the Gaza Strip after the death of the gang’s most prominent leader last week. In a potential blow to Israel’s post-war plans in Gaza, Yasser Abu Shabab was killed in what one source described as an “internal conflict”, underscoring the unstable nature of the region after two years of war.
With no clear prospects for Hamas disarmament or international monitoring mechanisms, the second phase will focus on reconstruction efforts within the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip. Israel has begun clearing the Rafah area in southern Gaza to allow it to rebuild the shattered territory, as part of a broader strategy to persuade Palestinians to move to what the United States calls an “alternative safe zone” and isolate Hamas.
In the short term, the Trump administration is focused on finalizing elements of Gaza’s postwar governance. The United States is working to finalize a peace commission to oversee Gaza’s redevelopment and a Palestinian technical committee to run the area, U.S. and Israeli officials said. At an unspecified later date, the reformed Palestinian Authority, which currently governs parts of the occupied West Bank, will take over administration of Gaza, opening the door to what the UN resolution calls “a credible path to Palestinian self-determination.”
Underscoring the long-term difficulties of reaching a ceasefire agreement, Israel has already rejected the Palestinian Authority’s responsibility for Gaza and any concept of a Palestinian state.
